Spatial model of Ebola outbreaks contained by behavior change

Gustav S. Halvorsen; Lone Simonsen; Kim Sneppen

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0264425

Spatial model of Ebola outbreaks contained by behavior change

Gustav S. Halvorsen, Lone Simonsen, Kim Sneppen^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

Department of Science and Environment

Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review

Abstract

The West African Ebola (2014-2016) epidemic caused an estimated 11.310 deaths and massive social and economic disruption. The epidemic was comprised of many local outbreaks of varying sizes. However, often local outbreaks recede before the arrival of international aid or susceptible depletion. We modeled Ebola virus transmission under the effect of behavior changes acting as a local inhibitor. A spatial model is used to simulate Ebola epidemics. Our findings suggest that behavior changes can explain why local Ebola outbreaks recede before substantial international aid was mobilized during the 2014-2016 epidemic.

Original language	English
Article number	e0264425
Journal	PLOS ONE
Volume	17
Issue number	3 March
ISSN	1932-6203
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0264425
Publication status	Published - Mar 2022

Link to document

10.1371/journal.pone.0264425Licence: CC BY

Spatial model of Ebola outbreaks contained by behavior changeFinal published version, 1.91 MBLicence: CC BY

Cite this

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title = "Spatial model of Ebola outbreaks contained by behavior change",

abstract = "The West African Ebola (2014-2016) epidemic caused an estimated 11.310 deaths and massive social and economic disruption. The epidemic was comprised of many local outbreaks of varying sizes. However, often local outbreaks recede before the arrival of international aid or susceptible depletion. We modeled Ebola virus transmission under the effect of behavior changes acting as a local inhibitor. A spatial model is used to simulate Ebola epidemics. Our findings suggest that behavior changes can explain why local Ebola outbreaks recede before substantial international aid was mobilized during the 2014-2016 epidemic. ",

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AB - The West African Ebola (2014-2016) epidemic caused an estimated 11.310 deaths and massive social and economic disruption. The epidemic was comprised of many local outbreaks of varying sizes. However, often local outbreaks recede before the arrival of international aid or susceptible depletion. We modeled Ebola virus transmission under the effect of behavior changes acting as a local inhibitor. A spatial model is used to simulate Ebola epidemics. Our findings suggest that behavior changes can explain why local Ebola outbreaks recede before substantial international aid was mobilized during the 2014-2016 epidemic.

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