Probabilidad condicional como herramienta para la toma de decisiones: una secuencia didáctica

Translated title of the contribution: Conditional probability as a decision-making tool: a didactic sequence

Raimundo Elicer, Eduardo Carrasco

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingArticle in proceedingsResearchpeer-review


Bet and strategy are the paths for decision making under uncertainty, a reality that one cannot avoid. Particularly, conditional probability arises as a tool for analyzing a strategy that molds to new conditions. Under the framework of didactic engineering, elements of the a priori analysis of a didactic sequence which emphasizes this use are given. A sequence which utilizes the Monty Hall problem as a diachronic game, jeopardizing conditional probability, is proposed. One can conjecture that students will use socioemotional elements and a wrong perception of the sample space to make decisions. It is likely to expect that after several simulations of the game the need for a correct calculation of success probability under each possible decision will arise.
Translated title of the contributionConditional probability as a decision-making tool: a didactic sequence
Original languageSpanish
Title of host publicationXIX Jornadas Nacionales de Educación Matemática
EditorsMarcela Parraguez, Hernán Rivas, Claudia Vásquez, Nataly Pincheira, Horacio Solar, Francisco Rojas, Eugenio Chandia
Number of pages7
Place of PublicationVillarrica, Chile
PublisherSociedad Chilena de Educación Matemática
Publication date2015
Publication statusPublished - 2015
Externally publishedYes


  • probability
  • conditional
  • engineering
  • didactic

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