Bet and strategy are the paths for decision making under uncertainty, a reality that one cannot avoid. Particularly, conditional probability arises as a tool for analyzing a strategy that molds to new conditions. Under the framework of didactic engineering, elements of the a priori analysis of a didactic sequence which emphasizes this use are given. A sequence which utilizes the Monty Hall problem as a diachronic game, jeopardizing conditional probability, is proposed. One can conjecture that students will use socioemotional elements and a wrong perception of the sample space to make decisions. It is likely to expect that after several simulations of the game the need for a correct calculation of success probability under each possible decision will arise.
|Translated title of the contribution||Conditional probability as a decision-making tool: a didactic sequence|
|Title of host publication||XIX Jornadas Nacionales de Educación Matemática|
|Editors||Marcela Parraguez, Hernán Rivas, Claudia Vásquez, Nataly Pincheira, Horacio Solar, Francisco Rojas, Eugenio Chandia|
|Number of pages||7|
|Place of Publication||Villarrica, Chile|
|Publisher||Sociedad Chilena de Educación Matemática|
|Publication status||Published - 2015|