Personalized mathematical model of endotoxin-induced inflammatory responses in young men and associated changes in heart rate variability

Renee Brady, Dennis Frank-Ito, Hien Tran, Susanne Janum, Kirsten Møller, Susanne Brix, Johnny T. Ottesen, Jesper Mehlsen, Mette Olufsen

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

Abstract

The objective of this study is to develop a personalized inflammatory model and
estimate subject-specific parameters that can be related to changes in heart rate
variability (HRV), a measure that can be obtained non-invasively in real time. An
inflammatory model is developed and calibrated to measurements of interleukin-6 (IL-6), tumor necrosis factor (TNF-alpha), interleukin-8 (IL-8) and interleukin-10 (IL-10) over 8 hours in 20 subjects administered a low dose of lipopolysaccharide. For this model, we estimated 11 subject-specific parameters for all 20 subjects. Estimated parameters were correlated with changes in HRV, computed from ECG measurements using a built-in HRV module available in Labchart. Results revealed that patients could be separated into two groups expressing normal and abnormal responses to endotoxin. Abnormal responders exhibited increased HRV, most likely as a result of increased vagal firing. The observed correlation between the inflammatory response and HRV brings us a step further towards understanding if HRV predictions can be used as a marker for inflammation. Analyzing HRV parameters provides an easy, noninvasively
obtained measure that can be used to asses the state of the subject, potentially translating to identifying a non-invasive marker that can be used to detect
the onset of sepsis.
Original languageEnglish
Article number42
JournalMathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena
Volume13
Issue number5
Number of pages20
ISSN0973-5348
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2018

Keywords

  • Acute inflammation
  • mathematical modeling
  • heart rate variability
  • Parameter estimation

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