The 1990 peace dividend: a counterfactual hypothesis

Rolf Czeskleba-Dupont

    Research output: Contribution to conferencePosterResearch


    According to Stern 2006, postponing investments against global warming leads to much higher costs in the future. Historically, the world already experienced such a time-delay and its costs. After the fall of the Berlin Wall, less than 2% of global GDP in two decades, available from halving military expenditure, would have been sufficient to make the world safe against global warming. The energy procurement, chemicals and transport sectors, agriculture and other energy application systems could have been reconstructed ecologically and the debt burden of developing countries removed (Commoner 1990). Boomerangs of the international debt crisis including bail-out of U.S. banks, loss of jobs, deforestation, migration, conflict and war could have been avoided (Susan George 1992).

    Defending its geopolitical position, the dominant block at power excluded, however, any peace dividend (Fortune 1990). In crucial bifurcations, environmentally progressive alternatives are easily dismissed. Although technologically advanced scenarios for low energy paths make the very concept of sustainable development operational (Czeskleba-Dupont 2003), it is made irrelevant that they falsify prognoses of ever rising demand (WCED 1987, chapter 7). In the raison d' état of an anarchic world-system, it seems more 'secure' by violence to expropriate others of their natural resources.

    Translated title of the contributionFredsdividenden fra 1990 - en kontrafaktisk hypotese
    Original languageEnglish
    Publication date2009
    Number of pages1
    Publication statusPublished - 2009
    Event1. World Congress of Environmental History - København og Malmö, Denmark
    Duration: 4 Aug 20098 Aug 2009


    Conference1. World Congress of Environmental History
    CityKøbenhavn og Malmö


    • Peace dividend
    • ecological transformation
    • green investment plan
    • debt boomerang
    • bloc in power
    • sustainable development
    • exproppriation
    • natural resources
    • kontrafaktisk hypotese

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