Evolution, safety, and highly pathogenic influenza viruses

Marc Lipsitch*, Joshua B Plotkin, Lone Simonsen, Barry Bloom

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articlepeer-review


Experience with influenza has shown that predictions of virus phenotype or fitness from nucleotide sequence are imperfect, and that predicting the timing and course of evolution is extremely difficult. Such uncertainty means that the risk of experiments with mammalian-transmissible, possibly highly virulent influenza viruses remains high even if some aspects of their laboratory biology are reassuring; it also implies limitations on the ability of laboratory observations to guide interpretation of surveillance of strains in the field. Given these considerations, we propose that future experiments with virulent pathogens whose accidental or deliberate release could lead to extensive spread in human populations should be limited by explicit risk-benefit considerations, in the United States and worldwide.
Original languageEnglish
Issue number6088
Pages (from-to)1529–1531
Publication statusPublished - 2012
Externally publishedYes

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