COVID-19 Superspreading Suggests Mitigation by Social Network Modulation

Bjarke Frost Nielsen, Lone Simonsen, Kim Sneppen

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

Abstract

Although COVID-19 has caused severe suffering globally, the efficacy of nonpharmaceutical interventions has been greater than typical models have predicted. Meanwhile, evidence is mounting that the pandemic is characterized by superspreading. Capturing this phenomenon theoretically requires modeling at the scale of individuals. Using a mathematical model, we show that superspreading drastically enhances mitigations which reduce the overall personal contact number and that social clustering increases this effect.
Original languageEnglish
Article number118301
JournalPhysical Review Letters
Volume126
Issue number11
ISSN0031-9007
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 15 Mar 2021

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
Our research has received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program, Grant Agreement No. 740704, as well as from The Carlsberg Foundation, Grant No. 61114.

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