COVID-19 Superspreading Suggests Mitigation by Social Network Modulation

Bjarke Frost Nielsen; Lone Simonsen; Kim Sneppen

doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.126.118301

COVID-19 Superspreading Suggests Mitigation by Social Network Modulation

Bjarke Frost Nielsen, Lone Simonsen, Kim Sneppen

Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review

Abstract

Although COVID-19 has caused severe suffering globally, the efficacy of nonpharmaceutical interventions has been greater than typical models have predicted. Meanwhile, evidence is mounting that the pandemic is characterized by superspreading. Capturing this phenomenon theoretically requires modeling at the scale of individuals. Using a mathematical model, we show that superspreading drastically enhances mitigations which reduce the overall personal contact number and that social clustering increases this effect.

Original language	English
Article number	118301
Journal	Physical Review Letters
Volume	126
Issue number	11
ISSN	0031-9007
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.126.118301
Publication status	Published - 15 Mar 2021

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
Our research has received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program, Grant Agreement No. 740704, as well as from The Carlsberg Foundation, Grant No. 61114.

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10.1103/PhysRevLett.126.118301Licence: CC BY

COVID-19 Superspreading Suggests Mitigation by Social Network ModulationFinal published version, 1.3 MBLicence: CC BY

Carlsberg PandemiX: A Quantitative study of historical and contemporary pandemics
Simonsen, L., Andreasen, V., Berrig, C., Wijhe, M. V., Qvesel, A. G., Thorn, A. V., Ørskov, S., Ingholt, M. M., Krogfelt, K. A., Nielsen, B. F., Poder, S. K., Mannov Christiansen, C., Pedersen, A. G., Sneppen, K., Fischer, T. K., Pedersen, R. K. & Eilersen, A. T.
Carlsbergfondet
01/04/2020 → 30/09/2024
Project: Research

Cite this

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abstract = "Although COVID-19 has caused severe suffering globally, the efficacy of nonpharmaceutical interventions has been greater than typical models have predicted. Meanwhile, evidence is mounting that the pandemic is characterized by superspreading. Capturing this phenomenon theoretically requires modeling at the scale of individuals. Using a mathematical model, we show that superspreading drastically enhances mitigations which reduce the overall personal contact number and that social clustering increases this effect.",

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COVID-19 Superspreading Suggests Mitigation by Social Network Modulation

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Link to document

Projects

Carlsberg PandemiX: A Quantitative study of historical and contemporary pandemics

Cite this