Conditional probability as a decision-making tool: A didactic sequence

Raimundo Elicer, Eduardo Carrasco

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingArticle in proceedingsResearchpeer-review

Abstract

Conditional probability arises as a tool for analyzing a strategy for decision-making that molds to new conditions. From that point of view, an introductory sequence which utilizes diachronic games is designed and analyzed under the framework of didactical engineering, bringing conditional probability into play as a decision-making tool. It can be observed that students tend to base their decisions on heuristics and experiential considerations, and do not see the need for a proper calculation of theoretical probabilities. At most, they use experimentation as a tool, not computing probabilities based on relative frequencies, but comparing absolute frequencies.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the Tenth Congress of the European Society for Research in Mathematics Education (CERME10, February 1 – 5, 2017)
EditorsThérèse Dooley, Ghislaine Gueudet
Number of pages8
PublisherEuropean Society for Research in Mathematics Education / ERME
Publication date2017
Pages748-755
Publication statusPublished - 2017
Event10th Congress of the European Society for Research in Mathematics Education - Institute of Education, Dublin City University, Dublin, Ireland
Duration: 1 Feb 20175 Feb 2017
Conference number: 10
http://cerme10.org/

Conference

Conference10th Congress of the European Society for Research in Mathematics Education
Number10
LocationInstitute of Education, Dublin City University
CountryIreland
CityDublin
Period01/02/201705/02/2017
Internet address

Keywords

  • decision-making
  • conditional probability
  • didactical engineering

Cite this

Elicer, R., & Carrasco, E. (2017). Conditional probability as a decision-making tool: A didactic sequence. In T. Dooley, & G. Gueudet (Eds.), Proceedings of the Tenth Congress of the European Society for Research in Mathematics Education (CERME10, February 1 – 5, 2017) (pp. 748-755). European Society for Research in Mathematics Education / ERME.
Elicer, Raimundo ; Carrasco, Eduardo. / Conditional probability as a decision-making tool: A didactic sequence. Proceedings of the Tenth Congress of the European Society for Research in Mathematics Education (CERME10, February 1 – 5, 2017). editor / Thérèse Dooley ; Ghislaine Gueudet. European Society for Research in Mathematics Education / ERME, 2017. pp. 748-755
@inproceedings{75978685c24c42408c9875cce079e99b,
title = "Conditional probability as a decision-making tool: A didactic sequence",
abstract = "Conditional probability arises as a tool for analyzing a strategy for decision-making that molds to new conditions. From that point of view, an introductory sequence which utilizes diachronic games is designed and analyzed under the framework of didactical engineering, bringing conditional probability into play as a decision-making tool. It can be observed that students tend to base their decisions on heuristics and experiential considerations, and do not see the need for a proper calculation of theoretical probabilities. At most, they use experimentation as a tool, not computing probabilities based on relative frequencies, but comparing absolute frequencies.",
keywords = "decision-making, conditional probability, didactical engineering",
author = "Raimundo Elicer and Eduardo Carrasco",
year = "2017",
language = "English",
pages = "748--755",
editor = "Th{\'e}r{\`e}se Dooley and Ghislaine Gueudet",
booktitle = "Proceedings of the Tenth Congress of the European Society for Research in Mathematics Education (CERME10, February 1 – 5, 2017)",
publisher = "European Society for Research in Mathematics Education / ERME",

}

Elicer, R & Carrasco, E 2017, Conditional probability as a decision-making tool: A didactic sequence. in T Dooley & G Gueudet (eds), Proceedings of the Tenth Congress of the European Society for Research in Mathematics Education (CERME10, February 1 – 5, 2017). European Society for Research in Mathematics Education / ERME, pp. 748-755, Dublin, Ireland, 01/02/2017.

Conditional probability as a decision-making tool: A didactic sequence. / Elicer, Raimundo; Carrasco, Eduardo.

Proceedings of the Tenth Congress of the European Society for Research in Mathematics Education (CERME10, February 1 – 5, 2017). ed. / Thérèse Dooley; Ghislaine Gueudet. European Society for Research in Mathematics Education / ERME, 2017. p. 748-755.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingArticle in proceedingsResearchpeer-review

TY - GEN

T1 - Conditional probability as a decision-making tool: A didactic sequence

AU - Elicer, Raimundo

AU - Carrasco, Eduardo

PY - 2017

Y1 - 2017

N2 - Conditional probability arises as a tool for analyzing a strategy for decision-making that molds to new conditions. From that point of view, an introductory sequence which utilizes diachronic games is designed and analyzed under the framework of didactical engineering, bringing conditional probability into play as a decision-making tool. It can be observed that students tend to base their decisions on heuristics and experiential considerations, and do not see the need for a proper calculation of theoretical probabilities. At most, they use experimentation as a tool, not computing probabilities based on relative frequencies, but comparing absolute frequencies.

AB - Conditional probability arises as a tool for analyzing a strategy for decision-making that molds to new conditions. From that point of view, an introductory sequence which utilizes diachronic games is designed and analyzed under the framework of didactical engineering, bringing conditional probability into play as a decision-making tool. It can be observed that students tend to base their decisions on heuristics and experiential considerations, and do not see the need for a proper calculation of theoretical probabilities. At most, they use experimentation as a tool, not computing probabilities based on relative frequencies, but comparing absolute frequencies.

KW - decision-making

KW - conditional probability

KW - didactical engineering

UR - http://www.mathematik.uni-dortmund.de/~erme/index.php?slab=proceedings

M3 - Article in proceedings

SP - 748

EP - 755

BT - Proceedings of the Tenth Congress of the European Society for Research in Mathematics Education (CERME10, February 1 – 5, 2017)

A2 - Dooley, Thérèse

A2 - Gueudet, Ghislaine

PB - European Society for Research in Mathematics Education / ERME

ER -

Elicer R, Carrasco E. Conditional probability as a decision-making tool: A didactic sequence. In Dooley T, Gueudet G, editors, Proceedings of the Tenth Congress of the European Society for Research in Mathematics Education (CERME10, February 1 – 5, 2017). European Society for Research in Mathematics Education / ERME. 2017. p. 748-755