### Abstract

Original language | English |
---|---|

Title of host publication | Proceedings of the Tenth Congress of the European Society for Research in Mathematics Education (CERME10, February 1 – 5, 2017) |

Editors | Thérèse Dooley, Ghislaine Gueudet |

Number of pages | 8 |

Publisher | European Society for Research in Mathematics Education / ERME |

Publication date | 2017 |

Pages | 748-755 |

Publication status | Published - 2017 |

Event | 10th Congress of the European Society for Research in Mathematics Education - Institute of Education, Dublin City University, Dublin, Ireland Duration: 1 Feb 2017 → 5 Feb 2017 Conference number: 10 http://cerme10.org/ |

### Conference

Conference | 10th Congress of the European Society for Research in Mathematics Education |
---|---|

Number | 10 |

Location | Institute of Education, Dublin City University |

Country | Ireland |

City | Dublin |

Period | 01/02/2017 → 05/02/2017 |

Internet address |

### Keywords

- decision-making
- conditional probability
- didactical engineering

### Cite this

*Proceedings of the Tenth Congress of the European Society for Research in Mathematics Education (CERME10, February 1 – 5, 2017)*(pp. 748-755). European Society for Research in Mathematics Education / ERME.

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*Proceedings of the Tenth Congress of the European Society for Research in Mathematics Education (CERME10, February 1 – 5, 2017).*European Society for Research in Mathematics Education / ERME, pp. 748-755, Dublin, Ireland, 01/02/2017.

**Conditional probability as a decision-making tool: A didactic sequence.** / Elicer, Raimundo; Carrasco, Eduardo.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Article in proceedings › Research › peer-review

TY - GEN

T1 - Conditional probability as a decision-making tool: A didactic sequence

AU - Elicer, Raimundo

AU - Carrasco, Eduardo

PY - 2017

Y1 - 2017

N2 - Conditional probability arises as a tool for analyzing a strategy for decision-making that molds to new conditions. From that point of view, an introductory sequence which utilizes diachronic games is designed and analyzed under the framework of didactical engineering, bringing conditional probability into play as a decision-making tool. It can be observed that students tend to base their decisions on heuristics and experiential considerations, and do not see the need for a proper calculation of theoretical probabilities. At most, they use experimentation as a tool, not computing probabilities based on relative frequencies, but comparing absolute frequencies.

AB - Conditional probability arises as a tool for analyzing a strategy for decision-making that molds to new conditions. From that point of view, an introductory sequence which utilizes diachronic games is designed and analyzed under the framework of didactical engineering, bringing conditional probability into play as a decision-making tool. It can be observed that students tend to base their decisions on heuristics and experiential considerations, and do not see the need for a proper calculation of theoretical probabilities. At most, they use experimentation as a tool, not computing probabilities based on relative frequencies, but comparing absolute frequencies.

KW - decision-making

KW - conditional probability

KW - didactical engineering

UR - http://www.mathematik.uni-dortmund.de/~erme/index.php?slab=proceedings

M3 - Article in proceedings

SP - 748

EP - 755

BT - Proceedings of the Tenth Congress of the European Society for Research in Mathematics Education (CERME10, February 1 – 5, 2017)

A2 - Dooley, Thérèse

A2 - Gueudet, Ghislaine

PB - European Society for Research in Mathematics Education / ERME

ER -