Adding Value to Ecological Risk Assessment with Population Modeling

Valery E. Forbes, Peter Calow, Volker Grimm, Takehiko I. Hayashi, Tjalling Jager, Agnete Krabbe Katholm, Annemette Palmqvist, Rob Pastorak, Dan Salvito, Richard Sibly, Julann Spromberg, John Stark, Richard A. Stillman

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articlepeer-review


Current measures used to estimate the risks of toxic chemicals are not relevant to
the goals of the environmental protection process, and thus ecological risk assessment (ERA) is not used as extensively as it should be as a basis for cost-effective management of environmental resources. Appropriate population models can provide a powerful basis for expressing ecological risks that better inform the environmental management process and thus that are more likely to be used by managers. Here we provide at least five reasons why population modeling should play an important role in bridging the gap between what we measure and what we want to protect. We then describe six actions needed for its implementation into management-relevant ERA.
Original languageEnglish
JournalHuman and Ecological Risk Assessment
Issue number2
Pages (from-to)287-299
Number of pages13
Publication statusPublished - 2011


  • Population modeling
  • Socioeconomic analysis
  • Environmental management
  • Extinction risk
  • Extrapolation
  • Ecological risk assessment

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