A modified Delphi method to elicit and compare perceptions of industry trends

Kathrine Friis-Holm Egfjord, Kristian J. Sund*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review


Existing literature suggests that one reason why incumbent firms fail at radical business model innovation is the existence of cognitive barriers, such as a dominant core business logic. Such a dominant logic may result in organizational tensions, when a new logic emerges. In a related article in Technological Forecasting & Social Change, we argue that differences in strategic issue identification and interpretation can help to explain the cognitive barriers in this context. In the present article, we propose and demonstrate a 7-step Delphi based method to elicit and examine differences in the perception of industry trends, comparing innovators, core business employees, and external experts. We use the case study of a leading Nordic insurance firm to illustrate the method.
Original languageEnglish
Article number101081
Number of pages10
Publication statusPublished - 6 Oct 2020


  • Delphi method
  • Cognitive mapping
  • Business model innovation
  • Incumbent firms
  • Industry trends
  • Issue interpretation

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