Future climate change is expected to present challenges to flora across a wide range of ecosystems. Using a simple soil water balance model and inputs from three climate models, this study assesses the future landscapes of Denmark using the European Vegetation Map as a reference point for natural vegetation, and Spring Barley as a case study for agricultural crops. Two locations were selected to be representative of climate and soil types of eastern and western Denmark. DAISY model is used in conjunction with the soil water balance model to assess future soil dryness conditions, and temperature, precipitation and length of dry periods are used to compare past and future climate conditions in each of the vegetation zones. For all vegetation zones, climate ranges were exceeded in the future climate, with the average annual temperature range exceeded in all zones, and in the majority of the zones, winter temperatures were also exceeded. Annual precipitation range was exceeded in several zones, and dry periods increase in both the western and eastern locations, this has implications for species that are susceptible to drought or reduced soil water conditions. Most of the selected vegetation within each zone is likely to experience varying degrees of negative impacts from future climate, with some species possibly being unable to grow within the region in the future.
|Uddannelser||Miljørisiko, (Bachelor/kandidatuddannelse) Kandidat|
|Udgivelsesdato||1 aug. 2015|
- Climate Change
- Spring Barley