Decision support systems incorporating climate uncertainty: Rainfall-Runoff modelling and climate scenarios as tools aiding decisionmaking in the Mitano Catchment, Uganda

Ligaya Taganahan Bullecer

Studenteropgave: Speciale

Abstrakt

Climate change is becoming an increasing subject of discourse across the globe. Decision and policy- making regarding climate change and its effects need to be tackled and integrated in development plans from local to national level. However, the high uncertainty of these climate effects pose a challenge in making sound climate decisions. This study has a main objective of investigating the manner in which hydrological and climate modelling can support decisionmaking process regarding climate change in Uganda. Historical climate data from Mitano Catchment in Uganda was used in constructing a downscaled climate model from an ensemble of 16 GCMs and using RCP4.5 trajectories. A simple rainfall-runoff (NAM) model was used in calculating crop evapotranspiration for banana crop for use in determining crop water requirements for future scenarios in the same catchment. Future climate based on the given trajectory is expected to change and will have undesirable effect on crops in the region by 2080. Temperature increase and erratic changes in precipitation are projected. Prolonged dry seasons in the months of April to August and intensified precipitation in rainy seasons (December) are anticipated. Crop evapotranspiration will increase by 2080, extremely exceeding precipitation values and depleting soil moisture. There is thus the need to draw water for irrigation from the river Mitano. The findings in this study are relevant in providing scientific information on how this scenario can unravel, as well as to allow for a discussion on the possibilities of mitigation based on the range of outcome that the model presents. It is important to note that it is useful to apply the methodology to other pathways as well, so that all possible outcomes are considered. Robust decision making uses multi-scenario modelling and multi-model planning, generating several plausible outcomes.

UddannelserMiljørisiko, (Bachelor/kandidatuddannelse) Kandidat
SprogEngelsk
Udgivelsesdato1 maj 2016

Emneord

  • banana
  • GCM
  • downscaling
  • climate modelling
  • climate scenarios
  • Uganda
  • NAM
  • decision support
  • uncertainty
  • RCP
  • climate change
  • crop water requirement