A system Dynamics interpretation of Danish total fertility rates

Frederik Nørgaard Hansen

Studenteropgave: Semesterprojekt

Abstrakt

Through the past century Europe has faced declines in the total fertility rate. Previous research has tried to explain this phenomenon of low fertility by trying to figure out what social or economic factors have influenced and created this change. This paper too seeks to investigate total fertility rates and does so through a new way of approaching total fertility rates. System dynamics theory is applied, and this means that mechanisms embedded in the system become the focus. The total fertil-ity rate model, a model made in this paper, is used to examine total fertility rates in Denmark. The conclusion of this was the fertility rate hypothesis, which claims that the decline in fertility was an expected outcome of women’s liberation and the economic recession in the 70s. These events creat-ed instability in the system structure, and it took time before the system recovered from this insta-bility. If the fertility rate hypothesis is correct, then no major declines in fertility should occur, as long as the total fertility rate’s system avoids major changes that could create new instability.

UddannelserBasis - International Samfundsvidenskabelig Bacheloruddannelse, (Bachelor uddannelse) Basis
SprogEngelsk
Udgivelsesdato30 maj 2013
VejledereLine Thorup

Emneord

  • System Dynamics
  • Total fertility rate
  • Modelling
  • Population Dynamics