A Critical Evaluation of the JRC report ‘Global Climate Policy Scenarios for 2030 and beyond’

Amalie Asperud Thomsen, Beata Aneta Bedkowska, Frederik Nørgaard Hansen, Lykke Hougaard Pedersen, Miina Prank & Simon Richard Schroecker

Studenteropgave: Semesterprojekt


This study was driven by interest in climate change problems and scenarios created to help reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The report investigates a scenario-study made by the European Commis-sion Joint Research Centre called ‘Global Climate Policy Scenarios for 2030 and beyond’. The pur-pose of this study was to explore the underlying assumptions and approach of the JRC report and see how these influence the reliability of the three model-based scenarios the JRC have created to contribute to scientific research on limiting climate change to two degrees Celsius. This paper was approached through critical realism which enabled to move from the JRC report to its most impor-tant aspects which were considered to be `Resources´ and `Carbon value´. It was concluded that the JRC report has rather optimistic view-points when it comes to resources relying on technology to solve any resource constraint problems which directly oppose the pessimistic view-points stating that geophysical constraints cannot be overlooked. The JRC report emphasises carbon pricing in the industrial sectors but leaves out others like transportation which could benefit the reduction sce-nario. Furthermore, the Clean Development Mechanism is to be responsible for a quarter of the total reductions in the greenhouse gas reduction scenario but might have serious long-term implications that might prohibit the outcome of the scenario.

UddannelserBasis - International Samfundsvidenskabelig Bacheloruddannelse, (Bachelor uddannelse) Basis
Udgivelsesdato18 jun. 2012


  • greenhouse gas reduction scenarios
  • carbon
  • climate change
  • energy