Weather variability affects the Peregrine Falcon (F. p. tundrius) breeding success in South Greenland

Linnéa Carlzon, Amanda Karlsson, Knud Falk, Søren Møller

    Publikation: KonferencebidragPaperForskningpeer review

    Resumé

    Global warming is affecting the Arctic at a much higher rate than the rest of the globe, causing a rapidly changing environment for Arctic biota. Climate change is already causing increased variability and extremes in precipitation. Although the peregrine falcon is a well-studied top predator in the Arctic only a few
    studies have identified how the changing weather patterns affect the breeding populations. Therefore, in order to understand the effects of climate change on the peregrine’s future prospects, we investigated the relationship between weather variability (“extreme weather”) and breeding success parameters for the peregrine in South Greenland.
    The peregrine population in South Greenland has been studied since 1981, and we defined two variables for comparison with weather data: ‘young/known territory’ (range 0.8 – 3.1) and ‘nest success’, i.e. proportion of known sites producing young (range 0.25 to 1.0). Weather data were obtained from two weather stations in the study area available from the Danish Meteorological Institute. From the raw data we calculated four extreme predictor variables: ‘extreme temperature’, ‘extreme precipitation’ and ‘consecutive rainy
    days’ – and ‘extreme weather’ combining rain and temperature. Regression analyses showed that the peregrine breeding success (both parameters) is linked to ‘extreme weather’; the strongest correlation is with total days in the season with ‘extreme weather’ affecting the breeding success negatively. Secondly, ‘low
    temperature’ and total days with ‘extreme weather’ during the pre-laying and incubation period also had significant negative correlation with breeding success. Contrary to expectations (and other studies), we found no significant effect of precipitation during the nesting period. Results also indicate that other factors influence the breeding success, as we have a strong downward trend in breeding success recent years but not an increase of extreme weather events during the same period.
    OriginalsprogEngelsk
    Publikationsdatosep. 2017
    Antal sider1
    StatusUdgivet - sep. 2017
    Begivenhed4th International Peregrine Conference - Herman Otto Institute, Budapest, Ungarn
    Varighed: 27 sep. 20171 okt. 2017
    Konferencens nummer: 4
    http://www.peregrinus.pl/en/peregrine-conference-budapest-2017

    Konference

    Konference4th International Peregrine Conference
    Nummer4
    LokationHerman Otto Institute
    LandUngarn
    ByBudapest
    Periode27/09/201701/10/2017
    AndetThe Peregrine Falcon Falco peregrinus is an icon of success in nature conservation.<br/><br/>In many countries Peregrine populations are in favourable conservation status, even better than before the major declines that occurred in the 1960s and 1970s. In many countries there are ongoing projects involving reintroduction and management of the wild populations, in others such projects have now ended successfully. However, there still remains the challenging task to re-establish the tree-nesting population in central Europe.<br/><br/>The organisers of the Budapest Conference have the honour to announce Professor Tom Cade as a member of the Scientific Committee and welcome his generous proposal to count the next year's Conference in line with the Madison (1965), Sacramento (1985) and Poznan (2007) Conferences, making it the 4th International Conference to be dedicated to the Peregrine Falcon.<br/><br/>Peregrine studies are routinely presented at ornithological conferences, but as one of many other issues. This Conference will bring together experts and researchers from around the world to present the extensive range of Peregrine research that has been carried out over the last ten years.<br/><br/>The first such conference took place in 1965 in Madison, and was successful not only in highlighting the effects of organochlorines on Peregrine populations, but also in bringing a diverse audience together with the common purpose of restoring this species' fortunes. As Cade et al. (1988)* state "As the most cosmopolitan naturally-distributed bird in the world, and as a top predator in the global ecosystem, the Peregrine was and is a unique biological monitor of the quality of the world's environments. Long known as the bird of kings, the Peregrine's preeminent position in falconry and its embodiment of nobility in the wild helped rally to the cause of biological conservation an extraordinary array of individuals and organizations." <br/><br/>* "Peregrine falcon populations: their management and recovery", Edited by T.C.Cade, J.H.Enderson, C.G.Thelander and C.M.White, The Peregrine Fund, 1988.<br/><br/>The 1985 Conference in Sacramento, USA, gathered an enormous number (circa 500) specialists from all over the world. They concluded that modern techniques of breeding and reintroduction, together with a ban on DDT, would allow recovery of many Peregrine populations. <br/><br/>A smaller regional conference was held in1994 in Włocławek, Poland (proceedings in Acta Ornithologica, Vol. 30, No 1, 1995, see on the web).<br/><br/>The 2007 Conference in Poland (proceedings published in "Peregrine Falcon populations – status and perspectives in the 21st century", see on the web) confirmed the recovery of many Peregrine populations around the world and positive growth of many others. <br/><br/>Now, a decade after the Poznan Conference, the global status of the Peregrine has improved significantly. And to celebrate the 20th anniversary of the Peregrine returning to breed in Hungary, the 4th International Peregrine Conference is to be held in Budapest.<br/><br/>This Conference offers a unique opportunity for Peregrine enthusiasts from all over the world to meet up to renew old acquaintances, make new friends and exchange knowledge, experience and ideas. It will be an international celebration of this truly spectacular and cosmopolitan bird for prey.<br/>
    Internetadresse

    Emneord

    • Vandrefalk
    • Grønland

    Citer dette

    Carlzon, L., Karlsson, A., Falk, K., & Møller, S. (2017). Weather variability affects the Peregrine Falcon (F. p. tundrius) breeding success in South Greenland. Afhandling præsenteret på 4th International Peregrine Conference, Budapest, Ungarn.
    Carlzon, Linnéa ; Karlsson, Amanda ; Falk, Knud ; Møller, Søren. / Weather variability affects the Peregrine Falcon (F. p. tundrius) breeding success in South Greenland. Afhandling præsenteret på 4th International Peregrine Conference, Budapest, Ungarn.1 s.
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    title = "Weather variability affects the Peregrine Falcon (F. p. tundrius) breeding success in South Greenland",
    abstract = "Global warming is affecting the Arctic at a much higher rate than the rest of the globe, causing a rapidly changing environment for Arctic biota. Climate change is already causing increased variability and extremes in precipitation. Although the peregrine falcon is a well-studied top predator in the Arctic only a fewstudies have identified how the changing weather patterns affect the breeding populations. Therefore, in order to understand the effects of climate change on the peregrine’s future prospects, we investigated the relationship between weather variability (“extreme weather”) and breeding success parameters for the peregrine in South Greenland.The peregrine population in South Greenland has been studied since 1981, and we defined two variables for comparison with weather data: ‘young/known territory’ (range 0.8 – 3.1) and ‘nest success’, i.e. proportion of known sites producing young (range 0.25 to 1.0). Weather data were obtained from two weather stations in the study area available from the Danish Meteorological Institute. From the raw data we calculated four extreme predictor variables: ‘extreme temperature’, ‘extreme precipitation’ and ‘consecutive rainydays’ – and ‘extreme weather’ combining rain and temperature. Regression analyses showed that the peregrine breeding success (both parameters) is linked to ‘extreme weather’; the strongest correlation is with total days in the season with ‘extreme weather’ affecting the breeding success negatively. Secondly, ‘lowtemperature’ and total days with ‘extreme weather’ during the pre-laying and incubation period also had significant negative correlation with breeding success. Contrary to expectations (and other studies), we found no significant effect of precipitation during the nesting period. Results also indicate that other factors influence the breeding success, as we have a strong downward trend in breeding success recent years but not an increase of extreme weather events during the same period.",
    keywords = "Vandrefalk, Gr{\o}nland, Peregrine Falcon, Greenland, Weather extremes",
    author = "Linn{\'e}a Carlzon and Amanda Karlsson and Knud Falk and S{\o}ren M{\o}ller",
    note = "Published by Herman Ott{\'o} Institute Nonprofit Ltd., Budapest, Hungary Eds.: M{\'a}ty{\'a}s Prommer and Janusz Sielicki; null ; Conference date: 27-09-2017 Through 01-10-2017",
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    Carlzon, L, Karlsson, A, Falk, K & Møller, S 2017, 'Weather variability affects the Peregrine Falcon (F. p. tundrius) breeding success in South Greenland' Paper fremlagt ved 4th International Peregrine Conference, Budapest, Ungarn, 27/09/2017 - 01/10/2017, .

    Weather variability affects the Peregrine Falcon (F. p. tundrius) breeding success in South Greenland. / Carlzon, Linnéa; Karlsson, Amanda; Falk, Knud; Møller, Søren.

    2017. Afhandling præsenteret på 4th International Peregrine Conference, Budapest, Ungarn.

    Publikation: KonferencebidragPaperForskningpeer review

    TY - CONF

    T1 - Weather variability affects the Peregrine Falcon (F. p. tundrius) breeding success in South Greenland

    AU - Carlzon, Linnéa

    AU - Karlsson, Amanda

    AU - Falk, Knud

    AU - Møller, Søren

    N1 - Published by Herman Ottó Institute Nonprofit Ltd., Budapest, Hungary Eds.: Mátyás Prommer and Janusz Sielicki

    PY - 2017/9

    Y1 - 2017/9

    N2 - Global warming is affecting the Arctic at a much higher rate than the rest of the globe, causing a rapidly changing environment for Arctic biota. Climate change is already causing increased variability and extremes in precipitation. Although the peregrine falcon is a well-studied top predator in the Arctic only a fewstudies have identified how the changing weather patterns affect the breeding populations. Therefore, in order to understand the effects of climate change on the peregrine’s future prospects, we investigated the relationship between weather variability (“extreme weather”) and breeding success parameters for the peregrine in South Greenland.The peregrine population in South Greenland has been studied since 1981, and we defined two variables for comparison with weather data: ‘young/known territory’ (range 0.8 – 3.1) and ‘nest success’, i.e. proportion of known sites producing young (range 0.25 to 1.0). Weather data were obtained from two weather stations in the study area available from the Danish Meteorological Institute. From the raw data we calculated four extreme predictor variables: ‘extreme temperature’, ‘extreme precipitation’ and ‘consecutive rainydays’ – and ‘extreme weather’ combining rain and temperature. Regression analyses showed that the peregrine breeding success (both parameters) is linked to ‘extreme weather’; the strongest correlation is with total days in the season with ‘extreme weather’ affecting the breeding success negatively. Secondly, ‘lowtemperature’ and total days with ‘extreme weather’ during the pre-laying and incubation period also had significant negative correlation with breeding success. Contrary to expectations (and other studies), we found no significant effect of precipitation during the nesting period. Results also indicate that other factors influence the breeding success, as we have a strong downward trend in breeding success recent years but not an increase of extreme weather events during the same period.

    AB - Global warming is affecting the Arctic at a much higher rate than the rest of the globe, causing a rapidly changing environment for Arctic biota. Climate change is already causing increased variability and extremes in precipitation. Although the peregrine falcon is a well-studied top predator in the Arctic only a fewstudies have identified how the changing weather patterns affect the breeding populations. Therefore, in order to understand the effects of climate change on the peregrine’s future prospects, we investigated the relationship between weather variability (“extreme weather”) and breeding success parameters for the peregrine in South Greenland.The peregrine population in South Greenland has been studied since 1981, and we defined two variables for comparison with weather data: ‘young/known territory’ (range 0.8 – 3.1) and ‘nest success’, i.e. proportion of known sites producing young (range 0.25 to 1.0). Weather data were obtained from two weather stations in the study area available from the Danish Meteorological Institute. From the raw data we calculated four extreme predictor variables: ‘extreme temperature’, ‘extreme precipitation’ and ‘consecutive rainydays’ – and ‘extreme weather’ combining rain and temperature. Regression analyses showed that the peregrine breeding success (both parameters) is linked to ‘extreme weather’; the strongest correlation is with total days in the season with ‘extreme weather’ affecting the breeding success negatively. Secondly, ‘lowtemperature’ and total days with ‘extreme weather’ during the pre-laying and incubation period also had significant negative correlation with breeding success. Contrary to expectations (and other studies), we found no significant effect of precipitation during the nesting period. Results also indicate that other factors influence the breeding success, as we have a strong downward trend in breeding success recent years but not an increase of extreme weather events during the same period.

    KW - Vandrefalk

    KW - Grønland

    KW - Peregrine Falcon

    KW - Greenland

    KW - Weather extremes

    M3 - Paper

    ER -

    Carlzon L, Karlsson A, Falk K, Møller S. Weather variability affects the Peregrine Falcon (F. p. tundrius) breeding success in South Greenland. 2017. Afhandling præsenteret på 4th International Peregrine Conference, Budapest, Ungarn.