Transmissibility and mortality impact of epidemic and pandemic influenza, with emphasis on the unusually deadly 1951 epidemic

Cecile Viboud, Theresa Tam, Douglas M Fleming, Andreas Handel, Mark Miller, Lone Simonsen

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

Resumé

There are important gaps in our current understanding of the influenza virus behavior. In particular, it remains unclear why some inter-pandemic seasons are associated with unusually high mortality impact, sometimes comparable to that of pandemics. Here we compare the epidemiological patterns of the unusually deadly 1951 influenza epidemic (A/H1N1) in England and Wales and Canada with those of surrounding epidemic and pandemic seasons, in terms of overall mortality impact and transmissibility. Based on the statistical and mathematical analysis of vital statistics and morbidity epidemic curves in these two countries, we show that the 1951 epidemic was associated with both higher mortality impact and higher transmissibility than the 1957 and 1968 pandemics. Surprisingly in Liverpool, considered the 'epicenter' of the severe 1951 epidemic, the mortality impact and transmissibility even surpassed the 1918 pandemic.
OriginalsprogEngelsk
TidsskriftVaccine
Vol/bind24
Udgave nummer44-46
Antal sider7
ISSN0264-410X
DOI
StatusUdgivet - 2006
Udgivet eksterntJa

Citer dette

Viboud, Cecile ; Tam, Theresa ; Fleming, Douglas M ; Handel, Andreas ; Miller, Mark ; Simonsen, Lone. / Transmissibility and mortality impact of epidemic and pandemic influenza, with emphasis on the unusually deadly 1951 epidemic. I: Vaccine. 2006 ; Bind 24, Nr. 44-46.
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abstract = "There are important gaps in our current understanding of the influenza virus behavior. In particular, it remains unclear why some inter-pandemic seasons are associated with unusually high mortality impact, sometimes comparable to that of pandemics. Here we compare the epidemiological patterns of the unusually deadly 1951 influenza epidemic (A/H1N1) in England and Wales and Canada with those of surrounding epidemic and pandemic seasons, in terms of overall mortality impact and transmissibility. Based on the statistical and mathematical analysis of vital statistics and morbidity epidemic curves in these two countries, we show that the 1951 epidemic was associated with both higher mortality impact and higher transmissibility than the 1957 and 1968 pandemics. Surprisingly in Liverpool, considered the 'epicenter' of the severe 1951 epidemic, the mortality impact and transmissibility even surpassed the 1918 pandemic.",
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Transmissibility and mortality impact of epidemic and pandemic influenza, with emphasis on the unusually deadly 1951 epidemic. / Viboud, Cecile; Tam, Theresa; Fleming, Douglas M; Handel, Andreas; Miller, Mark; Simonsen, Lone.

I: Vaccine, Bind 24, Nr. 44-46, 2006.

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Transmissibility and mortality impact of epidemic and pandemic influenza, with emphasis on the unusually deadly 1951 epidemic

AU - Viboud, Cecile

AU - Tam, Theresa

AU - Fleming, Douglas M

AU - Handel, Andreas

AU - Miller, Mark

AU - Simonsen, Lone

PY - 2006

Y1 - 2006

N2 - There are important gaps in our current understanding of the influenza virus behavior. In particular, it remains unclear why some inter-pandemic seasons are associated with unusually high mortality impact, sometimes comparable to that of pandemics. Here we compare the epidemiological patterns of the unusually deadly 1951 influenza epidemic (A/H1N1) in England and Wales and Canada with those of surrounding epidemic and pandemic seasons, in terms of overall mortality impact and transmissibility. Based on the statistical and mathematical analysis of vital statistics and morbidity epidemic curves in these two countries, we show that the 1951 epidemic was associated with both higher mortality impact and higher transmissibility than the 1957 and 1968 pandemics. Surprisingly in Liverpool, considered the 'epicenter' of the severe 1951 epidemic, the mortality impact and transmissibility even surpassed the 1918 pandemic.

AB - There are important gaps in our current understanding of the influenza virus behavior. In particular, it remains unclear why some inter-pandemic seasons are associated with unusually high mortality impact, sometimes comparable to that of pandemics. Here we compare the epidemiological patterns of the unusually deadly 1951 influenza epidemic (A/H1N1) in England and Wales and Canada with those of surrounding epidemic and pandemic seasons, in terms of overall mortality impact and transmissibility. Based on the statistical and mathematical analysis of vital statistics and morbidity epidemic curves in these two countries, we show that the 1951 epidemic was associated with both higher mortality impact and higher transmissibility than the 1957 and 1968 pandemics. Surprisingly in Liverpool, considered the 'epicenter' of the severe 1951 epidemic, the mortality impact and transmissibility even surpassed the 1918 pandemic.

U2 - 10.1016/j.vaccine.2006.05.067

DO - 10.1016/j.vaccine.2006.05.067

M3 - Journal article

VL - 24

JO - Vaccine

JF - Vaccine

SN - 0264-410X

IS - 44-46

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