The Rise of Iran

How Durable, How Dangerous

Ali Rahigh-Aghsan

Publikation: KonferencebidragPaperForskning

Resumé

Iran is viewed as a rising power that poses an increasing threat to regional and even global security. This view is wrong for three reasons. Iran's hard and soft power is exaggerated by most accounts; it is too limited to allow the Iranians to dominate the Persian Gulf let alone the Middle East, and its brand of Shi‘ism  has very limited appeal outside of Iran. Second, growing internal political and economic instability will seriously limit Iran's bid for regional dominance. Third, the failure to stop the Iranian nuclear program has led analysts to underestimate the ability of the other regional powers and the West to balance Iran and contain its influence, even if it acquires nuclear weapons. If these limitations on Iranian power are taken into account the rise seems destined to be a short one.
OriginalsprogEngelsk
Publikationsdato2009
Antal sider30
StatusUdgivet - 2009
BegivenhedPatterns of Change in the Global System - , Tyrkiet
Varighed: 17 jun. 200919 jun. 2009
Konferencens nummer: 1

Konference

KonferencePatterns of Change in the Global System
Nummer1
LandTyrkiet
Periode17/06/200919/06/2009

Citer dette

Rahigh-Aghsan, A. (2009). The Rise of Iran: How Durable, How Dangerous. Afhandling præsenteret på Patterns of Change in the Global System, Tyrkiet.
Rahigh-Aghsan, Ali. / The Rise of Iran : How Durable, How Dangerous. Afhandling præsenteret på Patterns of Change in the Global System, Tyrkiet.30 s.
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title = "The Rise of Iran: How Durable, How Dangerous",
abstract = "Iran is viewed as a rising power that poses an increasing threat to regional and even global security. This view is wrong for three reasons. Iran's hard and soft power is exaggerated by most accounts; it is too limited to allow the Iranians to dominate the Persian Gulf let alone the Middle East, and its brand of Shi‘ism  has very limited appeal outside of Iran. Second, growing internal political and economic instability will seriously limit Iran's bid for regional dominance. Third, the failure to stop the Iranian nuclear program has led analysts to underestimate the ability of the other regional powers and the West to balance Iran and contain its influence, even if it acquires nuclear weapons. If these limitations on Iranian power are taken into account the rise seems destined to be a short one.",
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Rahigh-Aghsan, A 2009, 'The Rise of Iran: How Durable, How Dangerous' Paper fremlagt ved Patterns of Change in the Global System, Tyrkiet, 17/06/2009 - 19/06/2009, .

The Rise of Iran : How Durable, How Dangerous. / Rahigh-Aghsan, Ali.

2009. Afhandling præsenteret på Patterns of Change in the Global System, Tyrkiet.

Publikation: KonferencebidragPaperForskning

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AB - Iran is viewed as a rising power that poses an increasing threat to regional and even global security. This view is wrong for three reasons. Iran's hard and soft power is exaggerated by most accounts; it is too limited to allow the Iranians to dominate the Persian Gulf let alone the Middle East, and its brand of Shi‘ism  has very limited appeal outside of Iran. Second, growing internal political and economic instability will seriously limit Iran's bid for regional dominance. Third, the failure to stop the Iranian nuclear program has led analysts to underestimate the ability of the other regional powers and the West to balance Iran and contain its influence, even if it acquires nuclear weapons. If these limitations on Iranian power are taken into account the rise seems destined to be a short one.

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Rahigh-Aghsan A. The Rise of Iran: How Durable, How Dangerous. 2009. Afhandling præsenteret på Patterns of Change in the Global System, Tyrkiet.