The Political Dynamics of Voter Retrospection and Disaster Responses

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

Resumé

Natural hazards not only have socio‐economic impacts, they also have political repercussions. This paper takes stock of the fast‐growing research linking disasters triggered by natural hazards to voting behaviour. The research is based on the central tenet of voter retrospection: voters place emphasis on past events when deciding their vote. The paper uncovers a great disparity of electoral outcomes in the wake of disasters. Some of this disparity can be explained away by authors' different methodological choices. However, the unpredictability of voting behaviour in the wake of disasters also points to the relevance of introducing an intermediate variable when explaining voter movements. This variable should capture the prevailing political discourses surrounding disasters, as these are likely to shape the dynamics of voter retrospection. The paper demonstrates the analytical relevance of such political discourses by contrasting the political dynamics in Denmark and Sweden in the aftermath of the 2004 tsunami.
OriginalsprogDansk
TidsskriftDisasters
Sider (fra-til)1-28
Antal sider29
ISSN0361-3666
StatusE-pub ahead of print - 24 jun. 2019

Citer dette

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abstract = "Natural hazards not only have socio‐economic impacts, they also have political repercussions. This paper takes stock of the fast‐growing research linking disasters triggered by natural hazards to voting behaviour. The research is based on the central tenet of voter retrospection: voters place emphasis on past events when deciding their vote. The paper uncovers a great disparity of electoral outcomes in the wake of disasters. Some of this disparity can be explained away by authors' different methodological choices. However, the unpredictability of voting behaviour in the wake of disasters also points to the relevance of introducing an intermediate variable when explaining voter movements. This variable should capture the prevailing political discourses surrounding disasters, as these are likely to shape the dynamics of voter retrospection. The paper demonstrates the analytical relevance of such political discourses by contrasting the political dynamics in Denmark and Sweden in the aftermath of the 2004 tsunami.",
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The Political Dynamics of Voter Retrospection and Disaster Responses. / Rubin, Olivier.

I: Disasters, 24.06.2019, s. 1-28.

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

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