The political dynamics of voter retrospection and disaster responses

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Natural hazards not only have socio‐economic impacts, they also have political repercussions. This paper takes stock of the fast‐growing research linking disasters triggered by natural hazards to voting behaviour. The research is based on the central tenet of voter retrospection: voters place emphasis on past events when deciding their vote. The paper uncovers a great disparity of electoral outcomes in the wake of disasters. Some of this disparity can be explained away by authors' different methodological choices. However, the unpredictability of voting behaviour in the wake of disasters also points to the relevance of introducing an intermediate variable when explaining voter movements. This variable should capture the prevailing political discourses surrounding disasters, as these are likely to shape the dynamics of voter retrospection. The paper demonstrates the analytical relevance of such political discourses by contrasting the political dynamics in Denmark and Sweden in the aftermath of the 2004 tsunami.
Udgave nummer2
Sider (fra-til)239-261
Antal sider29
StatusUdgivet - 1 apr. 2020

Bibliografisk note

Important note from the Publisher regarding the attached version of the article (available june 2021) "This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Rubin, O. (2020), The political dynamics of voter retrospection and disaster responses. Disasters. doi:10.1111/disa.12376, which has been published in final form at This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions."

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