The influence of the school year on measles epidemics

Viggo Andreasen

The influence of the school year on measles epidemics

Publikation: Konferencebidrag › Konferenceabstrakt til konference › Forskning

Abstract

The measles incidence record for Copenhagen 1880-1966 shows that the date of admission of new pupils has major impact on the structure of the epidemics, suggesting that measles transmission should be modelled in a way that accounts for the pulsed influx of new pupils. Assuming that the school year is long enough to allow for the epidemic to reach its final size, I derive an age-structured model reflecting the school sytructure and discuss its properties. If disease transmission is independent of age there exists a stable equilibrium in the sense that the epidemics of the same size will arise in each season. If transmission is gae-dependent the dynamics can involve regular or irregular oscillations.

Originalsprog	Engelsk
Publikationsdato	2006
Status	Udgivet - 2006
Begivenhed	European conference on mathematical and theoretical biology - Dresden, Tyskland Varighed: 18 jul. 2005 → 22 jul. 2005 Konferencens nummer: 6

Konference

Konference	European conference on mathematical and theoretical biology
Nummer	6
Land/Område	Tyskland
By	Dresden
Periode	18/07/2005 → 22/07/2005

Citer dette

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abstract = "The measles incidence record for Copenhagen 1880-1966 shows that the date of admission of new pupils has major impact on the structure of the epidemics, suggesting that measles transmission should be modelled in a way that accounts for the pulsed influx of new pupils. Assuming that the school year is long enough to allow for the epidemic to reach its final size, I derive an age-structured model reflecting the school sytructure and discuss its properties. If disease transmission is independent of age there exists a stable equilibrium in the sense that the epidemics of the same size will arise in each season. If transmission is gae-dependent the dynamics can involve regular or irregular oscillations.",

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AU - Andreasen, Viggo

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N2 - The measles incidence record for Copenhagen 1880-1966 shows that the date of admission of new pupils has major impact on the structure of the epidemics, suggesting that measles transmission should be modelled in a way that accounts for the pulsed influx of new pupils. Assuming that the school year is long enough to allow for the epidemic to reach its final size, I derive an age-structured model reflecting the school sytructure and discuss its properties. If disease transmission is independent of age there exists a stable equilibrium in the sense that the epidemics of the same size will arise in each season. If transmission is gae-dependent the dynamics can involve regular or irregular oscillations.

AB - The measles incidence record for Copenhagen 1880-1966 shows that the date of admission of new pupils has major impact on the structure of the epidemics, suggesting that measles transmission should be modelled in a way that accounts for the pulsed influx of new pupils. Assuming that the school year is long enough to allow for the epidemic to reach its final size, I derive an age-structured model reflecting the school sytructure and discuss its properties. If disease transmission is independent of age there exists a stable equilibrium in the sense that the epidemics of the same size will arise in each season. If transmission is gae-dependent the dynamics can involve regular or irregular oscillations.

M3 - Conference abstract for conference

Y2 - 18 July 2005 through 22 July 2005

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