The measles incidence record for Copenhagen 1880-1966 shows that the date of admission of new pupils has major impact on the structure of the epidemics, suggesting that measles transmission should be modelled in a way that accounts for the pulsed influx of new pupils. Assuming that the school year is long enough to allow for the epidemic to reach its final size, I derive an age-structured model reflecting the school sytructure and discuss its properties. If disease transmission is independent of age there exists a stable equilibrium in the sense that the epidemics of the same size will arise in each season. If transmission is gae-dependent the dynamics can involve regular or irregular oscillations.
|Status||Udgivet - 2006|
|Begivenhed||European conference on mathematical and theoretical biology - Dresden, Tyskland|
Varighed: 18 jul. 2005 → 22 jul. 2005
Konferencens nummer: 6
|Konference||European conference on mathematical and theoretical biology|
|Periode||18/07/2005 → 22/07/2005|