The influence of the school year on measles epidemics

    Publikation: KonferencebidragKonferenceabstrakt til konferenceForskning


    The measles incidence record for Copenhagen 1880-1966 shows that the date of admission of new pupils has major impact on the structure of the epidemics, suggesting that measles transmission should be modelled in a way that accounts for the pulsed influx of new pupils. Assuming that the school year is long enough to allow for the epidemic to reach its final size, I derive an age-structured model reflecting the school sytructure and discuss its properties. If disease transmission is independent of age there exists a stable equilibrium in the sense that the epidemics of the same size will arise in each season. If transmission is gae-dependent the dynamics can involve regular or irregular oscillations.
    StatusUdgivet - 2006
    BegivenhedEuropean conference on mathematical and theoretical biology - Dresden, Tyskland
    Varighed: 18 jul. 200522 jul. 2005
    Konferencens nummer: 6


    KonferenceEuropean conference on mathematical and theoretical biology

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