The 1990 peace dividend: a counterfactual hypothesis

Rolf Czeskleba-Dupont

The 1990 peace dividend: a counterfactual hypothesis

Bidragets oversatte titel: Fredsdividenden fra 1990 - en kontrafaktisk hypotese

Rolf Czeskleba-Dupont

Publikation: Konferencebidrag › Poster › Forskning

Abstract

At udskyde investeringerne mod global opvarmning fører ifølge Stern 2006 til meget højere omkostninger i fremtiden. Historisk har Verden allerede oplevet en sådan udskydelse og dennes omkostninger. Efter Berlinmurens fald ville mindre end 2% af det globale BNP over to årtier, svarende til en halvering af militærudgifterne, have været tistrækkeligt til at sikre Verden mod den globale opvarmning. Energiforsyningen, kemiindustrien, trnaportsektoren, landbruget og andre energianvendelsessystemer kunne være blevet rekonstrueret økologisk og u-landenes gæld afskaffet (Commoner 1990). Boomerangs af den internationale gældskrise som redningsaktionerne for USAs banker, afskovning, tab af arbejdspladser, migrationer, konflikter og krig kunne være blevet undgået (Susan George 1992).

Den herskende magtblok forsvarede imidlertid hellere sin geopolitiske position og udelukkede enhver fredsdividende (Fortune 1990). Under kritiske bifurkationer bliver miljømæssigt progressive alternativer nemt forkastet. Selvom teknologisk avancerede scenarier for lav-energi veje operationaliserer konceptet bæredygtig udvikling (Czeskleba-Dupont 2003), gør man som om det var irrelevant at de falsificerer prognoser der taler om en evigt stigende efterspørgsel (WCED 1987, kap.7). I et anarkisk verdenssystems raison d'état virker det mere 'sikkert' at ekspropriere andre med vold af deres naturressourcer.

Bidragets oversatte titel	Fredsdividenden fra 1990 - en kontrafaktisk hypotese
Originalsprog	Engelsk
Publikationsdato	2009
Antal sider	1
Status	Udgivet - 2009
Begivenhed	1. World Congress of Environmental History - København og Malmö, Danmark Varighed: 4 aug. 2009 → 8 aug. 2009

Konference

Konference	1. World Congress of Environmental History
Land/Område	Danmark
By	København og Malmö
Periode	04/08/2009 → 08/08/2009

Emneord

fredsdividende
økologisk transformation
grøn investeringsplan
gældsboomerang
magtblok
bæredygtig udvikling
ekspropriation
naturressourcer
kontrafaktisk hypotese

Link til dokument

WCEH poster 1119Forlagets udgivne version, 81,3 KB

Citer dette

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abstract = "According to Stern 2006, postponing investments against global warming leads to much higher costs in the future. Historically, the world already experienced such a time-delay and its costs. After the fall of the Berlin Wall, less than 2% of global GDP in two decades, available from halving military expenditure, would have been sufficient to make the world safe against global warming. The energy procurement, chemicals and transport sectors, agriculture and other energy application systems could have been reconstructed ecologically and the debt burden of developing countries removed (Commoner 1990). Boomerangs of the international debt crisis including bail-out of U.S. banks, loss of jobs, deforestation, migration, conflict and war could have been avoided (Susan George 1992). Defending its geopolitical position, the dominant block at power excluded, however, any peace dividend (Fortune 1990). In crucial bifurcations, environmentally progressive alternatives are easily dismissed. Although technologically advanced scenarios for low energy paths make the very concept of sustainable development operational (Czeskleba-Dupont 2003), it is made irrelevant that they falsify prognoses of ever rising demand (WCED 1987, chapter 7). In the raison d' {\'e}tat of an anarchic world-system, it seems more 'secure' by violence to expropriate others of their natural resources. ",

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