Synchrony, waves, and spatial hierarchies in the spread of influenza

Cecile Viboud, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, David L. Smith, Lone Simonsen, Mark Miller, Bryan T. Grenfell

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

Resumé

Quantifying long-range dissemination of infectious diseases is a key issue in their dynamics and control. Here, we use influenza-related mortality data to analyze the between-state progression of interpandemic influenza in the United States over the past 30 years. Outbreaks show hierarchical spatial spread evidenced by higher pairwise synchrony between more populous states. Seasons with higher influenza mortality are associated with higher disease transmission and more rapid spread than are mild ones. The regional spread of infection correlates more closely with rates of movement of people to and from their workplaces (workflows) than with geographical distance. Workflows are described in turn by a gravity model, with a rapid decay of commuting up to around 100 km and a long tail of rare longer range flow. A simple epidemiological model, based on the gravity formulation, captures the observed increase of influenza spatial synchrony with transmissibility; high transmission allows influenza to spread rapidly beyond local spatial constraints.
OriginalsprogEngelsk
TidsskriftScience
Vol/bind312
Udgave nummer5772
Antal sider5
ISSN0036-8075
StatusUdgivet - 2006
Udgivet eksterntJa

Citer dette

Viboud, C., Bjørnstad, O. N., Smith, D. L., Simonsen, L., Miller, M., & Grenfell, B. T. (2006). Synchrony, waves, and spatial hierarchies in the spread of influenza. Science, 312(5772).
Viboud, Cecile ; Bjørnstad, Ottar N. ; Smith, David L. ; Simonsen, Lone ; Miller, Mark ; Grenfell, Bryan T. / Synchrony, waves, and spatial hierarchies in the spread of influenza. I: Science. 2006 ; Bind 312, Nr. 5772.
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abstract = "Quantifying long-range dissemination of infectious diseases is a key issue in their dynamics and control. Here, we use influenza-related mortality data to analyze the between-state progression of interpandemic influenza in the United States over the past 30 years. Outbreaks show hierarchical spatial spread evidenced by higher pairwise synchrony between more populous states. Seasons with higher influenza mortality are associated with higher disease transmission and more rapid spread than are mild ones. The regional spread of infection correlates more closely with rates of movement of people to and from their workplaces (workflows) than with geographical distance. Workflows are described in turn by a gravity model, with a rapid decay of commuting up to around 100 km and a long tail of rare longer range flow. A simple epidemiological model, based on the gravity formulation, captures the observed increase of influenza spatial synchrony with transmissibility; high transmission allows influenza to spread rapidly beyond local spatial constraints.",
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Viboud, C, Bjørnstad, ON, Smith, DL, Simonsen, L, Miller, M & Grenfell, BT 2006, 'Synchrony, waves, and spatial hierarchies in the spread of influenza' Science, bind 312, nr. 5772.

Synchrony, waves, and spatial hierarchies in the spread of influenza. / Viboud, Cecile; Bjørnstad, Ottar N.; Smith, David L.; Simonsen, Lone; Miller, Mark; Grenfell, Bryan T.

I: Science, Bind 312, Nr. 5772, 2006.

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Synchrony, waves, and spatial hierarchies in the spread of influenza

AU - Viboud, Cecile

AU - Bjørnstad, Ottar N.

AU - Smith, David L.

AU - Simonsen, Lone

AU - Miller, Mark

AU - Grenfell, Bryan T.

PY - 2006

Y1 - 2006

N2 - Quantifying long-range dissemination of infectious diseases is a key issue in their dynamics and control. Here, we use influenza-related mortality data to analyze the between-state progression of interpandemic influenza in the United States over the past 30 years. Outbreaks show hierarchical spatial spread evidenced by higher pairwise synchrony between more populous states. Seasons with higher influenza mortality are associated with higher disease transmission and more rapid spread than are mild ones. The regional spread of infection correlates more closely with rates of movement of people to and from their workplaces (workflows) than with geographical distance. Workflows are described in turn by a gravity model, with a rapid decay of commuting up to around 100 km and a long tail of rare longer range flow. A simple epidemiological model, based on the gravity formulation, captures the observed increase of influenza spatial synchrony with transmissibility; high transmission allows influenza to spread rapidly beyond local spatial constraints.

AB - Quantifying long-range dissemination of infectious diseases is a key issue in their dynamics and control. Here, we use influenza-related mortality data to analyze the between-state progression of interpandemic influenza in the United States over the past 30 years. Outbreaks show hierarchical spatial spread evidenced by higher pairwise synchrony between more populous states. Seasons with higher influenza mortality are associated with higher disease transmission and more rapid spread than are mild ones. The regional spread of infection correlates more closely with rates of movement of people to and from their workplaces (workflows) than with geographical distance. Workflows are described in turn by a gravity model, with a rapid decay of commuting up to around 100 km and a long tail of rare longer range flow. A simple epidemiological model, based on the gravity formulation, captures the observed increase of influenza spatial synchrony with transmissibility; high transmission allows influenza to spread rapidly beyond local spatial constraints.

M3 - Journal article

VL - 312

JO - Science

JF - Science

SN - 0036-8075

IS - 5772

ER -

Viboud C, Bjørnstad ON, Smith DL, Simonsen L, Miller M, Grenfell BT. Synchrony, waves, and spatial hierarchies in the spread of influenza. Science. 2006;312(5772).