Quantifying the impact of mass vaccination programmes on notified cases in the Netherlands

Maarten van Wijhe, A.D. Tulen, H. Korthals Altes, S.A. McDonald, H.E. De Melker, M.J. Postma, J. Wallinga

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

Resumé

Vaccination programmes are considered a main contributor to the decline of infectious diseases over the 20th century. In recent years, the national vaccination coverage in the Netherlands has been declining, highlighting the need for continuous monitoring and evaluation of vaccination programmes. Our aim was to quantify the impact of long-standing vaccination programmes on
notified cases in the Netherlands. We collected and digitised previously unavailable monthly case notifications of diphtheria, poliomyelitis, mumps and rubella in the Netherlands over the period 1919–2015. Poisson regression models accounting for seasonality, multi-year cycles, secular trends and auto-correlation were fit to pre-vaccination periods. Cases averted were calculated as the difference between observed and expected cases based on model projections. In the first 13 years of mass vaccinations, case notifications declined rapidly with 82.4% (95% credible interval (CI): 74.9–87.6) of notified cases of diphtheria averted, 92.9% (95% CI 85.0–97.2) cases of poliomyelitis, and 79.1% (95% CI 67.1–87.4) cases of mumps. Vaccination of 11-year-old girls against rubella averted 49.9% (95% CI 9.3–73.5) of cases, while universal vaccination averted 68.1% (95% CI 19.4–87.3) of cases. These findings show that vaccination
programmes have contributed substantially to the reduction of infectious diseases in the Netherlands.
OriginalsprogEngelsk
TidsskriftEpidemiology and Infection
Vol/bind146
Udgave nummer6
Sider (fra-til)716-722
Antal sider7
ISSN0950-2688
DOI
StatusUdgivet - 2018
Udgivet eksterntJa

Bibliografisk note

This article has been found as a ’Free Version’ from the Publisher on January 7th 2019. When access to the article closes, please notify rucforsk@ruc.dk

Citer dette

Wijhe, M. V., Tulen, A. D., Korthals Altes, H., McDonald, S. A., De Melker, H. E., Postma, M. J., & Wallinga, J. (2018). Quantifying the impact of mass vaccination programmes on notified cases in the Netherlands. Epidemiology and Infection, 146(6), 716-722. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268818000481
Wijhe, Maarten van ; Tulen, A.D. ; Korthals Altes, H. ; McDonald, S.A. ; De Melker, H.E. ; Postma, M.J. ; Wallinga, J. / Quantifying the impact of mass vaccination programmes on notified cases in the Netherlands. I: Epidemiology and Infection. 2018 ; Bind 146, Nr. 6. s. 716-722.
@article{984960c8e94148438be824541dfdde28,
title = "Quantifying the impact of mass vaccination programmes on notified cases in the Netherlands",
abstract = "Vaccination programmes are considered a main contributor to the decline of infectious diseases over the 20th century. In recent years, the national vaccination coverage in the Netherlands has been declining, highlighting the need for continuous monitoring and evaluation of vaccination programmes. Our aim was to quantify the impact of long-standing vaccination programmes onnotified cases in the Netherlands. We collected and digitised previously unavailable monthly case notifications of diphtheria, poliomyelitis, mumps and rubella in the Netherlands over the period 1919–2015. Poisson regression models accounting for seasonality, multi-year cycles, secular trends and auto-correlation were fit to pre-vaccination periods. Cases averted were calculated as the difference between observed and expected cases based on model projections. In the first 13 years of mass vaccinations, case notifications declined rapidly with 82.4{\%} (95{\%} credible interval (CI): 74.9–87.6) of notified cases of diphtheria averted, 92.9{\%} (95{\%} CI 85.0–97.2) cases of poliomyelitis, and 79.1{\%} (95{\%} CI 67.1–87.4) cases of mumps. Vaccination of 11-year-old girls against rubella averted 49.9{\%} (95{\%} CI 9.3–73.5) of cases, while universal vaccination averted 68.1{\%} (95{\%} CI 19.4–87.3) of cases. These findings show that vaccinationprogrammes have contributed substantially to the reduction of infectious diseases in the Netherlands.",
author = "Wijhe, {Maarten van} and A.D. Tulen and {Korthals Altes}, H. and S.A. McDonald and {De Melker}, H.E. and M.J. Postma and J. Wallinga",
note = "This article has been found as a ’Free Version’ from the Publisher on January 7th 2019. When access to the article closes, please notify rucforsk@ruc.dk",
year = "2018",
doi = "10.1017/S0950268818000481",
language = "English",
volume = "146",
pages = "716--722",
journal = "Epidemiology and Infection",
issn = "0950-2688",
publisher = "Cambridge University Press",
number = "6",

}

Wijhe, MV, Tulen, AD, Korthals Altes, H, McDonald, SA, De Melker, HE, Postma, MJ & Wallinga, J 2018, 'Quantifying the impact of mass vaccination programmes on notified cases in the Netherlands' Epidemiology and Infection, bind 146, nr. 6, s. 716-722. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268818000481

Quantifying the impact of mass vaccination programmes on notified cases in the Netherlands. / Wijhe, Maarten van; Tulen, A.D.; Korthals Altes, H.; McDonald, S.A.; De Melker, H.E.; Postma, M.J.; Wallinga, J.

I: Epidemiology and Infection, Bind 146, Nr. 6, 2018, s. 716-722.

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Quantifying the impact of mass vaccination programmes on notified cases in the Netherlands

AU - Wijhe, Maarten van

AU - Tulen, A.D.

AU - Korthals Altes, H.

AU - McDonald, S.A.

AU - De Melker, H.E.

AU - Postma, M.J.

AU - Wallinga, J.

N1 - This article has been found as a ’Free Version’ from the Publisher on January 7th 2019. When access to the article closes, please notify rucforsk@ruc.dk

PY - 2018

Y1 - 2018

N2 - Vaccination programmes are considered a main contributor to the decline of infectious diseases over the 20th century. In recent years, the national vaccination coverage in the Netherlands has been declining, highlighting the need for continuous monitoring and evaluation of vaccination programmes. Our aim was to quantify the impact of long-standing vaccination programmes onnotified cases in the Netherlands. We collected and digitised previously unavailable monthly case notifications of diphtheria, poliomyelitis, mumps and rubella in the Netherlands over the period 1919–2015. Poisson regression models accounting for seasonality, multi-year cycles, secular trends and auto-correlation were fit to pre-vaccination periods. Cases averted were calculated as the difference between observed and expected cases based on model projections. In the first 13 years of mass vaccinations, case notifications declined rapidly with 82.4% (95% credible interval (CI): 74.9–87.6) of notified cases of diphtheria averted, 92.9% (95% CI 85.0–97.2) cases of poliomyelitis, and 79.1% (95% CI 67.1–87.4) cases of mumps. Vaccination of 11-year-old girls against rubella averted 49.9% (95% CI 9.3–73.5) of cases, while universal vaccination averted 68.1% (95% CI 19.4–87.3) of cases. These findings show that vaccinationprogrammes have contributed substantially to the reduction of infectious diseases in the Netherlands.

AB - Vaccination programmes are considered a main contributor to the decline of infectious diseases over the 20th century. In recent years, the national vaccination coverage in the Netherlands has been declining, highlighting the need for continuous monitoring and evaluation of vaccination programmes. Our aim was to quantify the impact of long-standing vaccination programmes onnotified cases in the Netherlands. We collected and digitised previously unavailable monthly case notifications of diphtheria, poliomyelitis, mumps and rubella in the Netherlands over the period 1919–2015. Poisson regression models accounting for seasonality, multi-year cycles, secular trends and auto-correlation were fit to pre-vaccination periods. Cases averted were calculated as the difference between observed and expected cases based on model projections. In the first 13 years of mass vaccinations, case notifications declined rapidly with 82.4% (95% credible interval (CI): 74.9–87.6) of notified cases of diphtheria averted, 92.9% (95% CI 85.0–97.2) cases of poliomyelitis, and 79.1% (95% CI 67.1–87.4) cases of mumps. Vaccination of 11-year-old girls against rubella averted 49.9% (95% CI 9.3–73.5) of cases, while universal vaccination averted 68.1% (95% CI 19.4–87.3) of cases. These findings show that vaccinationprogrammes have contributed substantially to the reduction of infectious diseases in the Netherlands.

UR - https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/epidemiology-and-infection/article/quantifying-the-impact-of-mass-vaccination-programmes-on-notified-cases-in-the-netherlands/DAC3C982B1F8CD1C78727B069A100DB1

U2 - 10.1017/S0950268818000481

DO - 10.1017/S0950268818000481

M3 - Journal article

VL - 146

SP - 716

EP - 722

JO - Epidemiology and Infection

JF - Epidemiology and Infection

SN - 0950-2688

IS - 6

ER -