Quantifying the impact of mass vaccination programmes on notified cases in the Netherlands

Maarten van Wijhe; A.D. Tulen; H. Korthals Altes; S.A. McDonald; H.E. De Melker; M.J. Postma; J. Wallinga

doi:10.1017/S0950268818000481

Quantifying the impact of mass vaccination programmes on notified cases in the Netherlands

Maarten van Wijhe, A.D. Tulen, H. Korthals Altes, S.A. McDonald, H.E. De Melker, M.J. Postma, J. Wallinga

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › peer review

Abstract

Vaccination programmes are considered a main contributor to the decline of infectious diseases over the 20th century. In recent years, the national vaccination coverage in the Netherlands has been declining, highlighting the need for continuous monitoring and evaluation of vaccination programmes. Our aim was to quantify the impact of long-standing vaccination programmes on
notified cases in the Netherlands. We collected and digitised previously unavailable monthly case notifications of diphtheria, poliomyelitis, mumps and rubella in the Netherlands over the period 1919–2015. Poisson regression models accounting for seasonality, multi-year cycles, secular trends and auto-correlation were fit to pre-vaccination periods. Cases averted were calculated as the difference between observed and expected cases based on model projections. In the first 13 years of mass vaccinations, case notifications declined rapidly with 82.4% (95% credible interval (CI): 74.9–87.6) of notified cases of diphtheria averted, 92.9% (95% CI 85.0–97.2) cases of poliomyelitis, and 79.1% (95% CI 67.1–87.4) cases of mumps. Vaccination of 11-year-old girls against rubella averted 49.9% (95% CI 9.3–73.5) of cases, while universal vaccination averted 68.1% (95% CI 19.4–87.3) of cases. These findings show that vaccination
programmes have contributed substantially to the reduction of infectious diseases in the Netherlands.

Originalsprog	Engelsk
Tidsskrift	Epidemiology and Infection
Vol/bind	146
Udgave nummer	6
Sider (fra-til)	716-722
Antal sider	7
ISSN	0950-2688
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268818000481
Status	Udgivet - 1 apr. 2018
Udgivet eksternt	Ja

Bibliografisk note

This article has been found as a ’Free Version’ from the Publisher on January 7th 2019. When access to the article closes, please notify [email protected]

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10.1017/S0950268818000481

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1 Tidsskriftartikel

Trends in governmental expenditure on vaccination programmes in the Netherlands, a historical analysis
van Wijhe, M., de Boer, P., de Jong, H., van Vliet, H., Wallinga, J. & Postma, M., 13 aug. 2019, I: Vaccine. 37, 38, s. 5698-5707 10 s.
Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › peer review

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The public health impact of vaccination programmes in the Netherlands. A historical analysis of mortality, morbidity, and costs
Wijhe, M. V. (Projektdeltager), Wallinga, J. (Projektkoordinator) & Postma, M. (Projektkoordinator)
13/06/2013 → 14/09/2018
Projekter: Projekt › Forskning

1 Foredrag og mundtlige bidrag

Looking back - the effects of more than half a century of vaccination programmes [Een blik terug – De effecten van meer dan een halve eeuw vaccineren]
Wijhe, M. V. (Oplægsholder)
16 dec. 2020
Aktivitet: Tale eller præsentation › Foredrag og mundtlige bidrag

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title = "Quantifying the impact of mass vaccination programmes on notified cases in the Netherlands",

abstract = "Vaccination programmes are considered a main contributor to the decline of infectious diseases over the 20th century. In recent years, the national vaccination coverage in the Netherlands has been declining, highlighting the need for continuous monitoring and evaluation of vaccination programmes. Our aim was to quantify the impact of long-standing vaccination programmes onnotified cases in the Netherlands. We collected and digitised previously unavailable monthly case notifications of diphtheria, poliomyelitis, mumps and rubella in the Netherlands over the period 1919–2015. Poisson regression models accounting for seasonality, multi-year cycles, secular trends and auto-correlation were fit to pre-vaccination periods. Cases averted were calculated as the difference between observed and expected cases based on model projections. In the first 13 years of mass vaccinations, case notifications declined rapidly with 82.4% (95% credible interval (CI): 74.9–87.6) of notified cases of diphtheria averted, 92.9% (95% CI 85.0–97.2) cases of poliomyelitis, and 79.1% (95% CI 67.1–87.4) cases of mumps. Vaccination of 11-year-old girls against rubella averted 49.9% (95% CI 9.3–73.5) of cases, while universal vaccination averted 68.1% (95% CI 19.4–87.3) of cases. These findings show that vaccinationprogrammes have contributed substantially to the reduction of infectious diseases in the Netherlands.",

keywords = "Immunisation (vaccination), infectious disease epidemiology, public health, vaccine-preventable diseases",

author = "Wijhe, {Maarten van} and A.D. Tulen and {Korthals Altes}, H. and S.A. McDonald and {De Melker}, H.E. and M.J. Postma and J. Wallinga",

note = "This article has been found as a {\textquoteright}Free Version{\textquoteright} from the Publisher on January 7th 2019. When access to the article closes, please notify [email protected]",

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doi = "10.1017/S0950268818000481",

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AU - Wijhe, Maarten van

AU - Tulen, A.D.

AU - Korthals Altes, H.

AU - McDonald, S.A.

AU - De Melker, H.E.

AU - Postma, M.J.

AU - Wallinga, J.

N1 - This article has been found as a ’Free Version’ from the Publisher on January 7th 2019. When access to the article closes, please notify [email protected]

PY - 2018/4/1

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N2 - Vaccination programmes are considered a main contributor to the decline of infectious diseases over the 20th century. In recent years, the national vaccination coverage in the Netherlands has been declining, highlighting the need for continuous monitoring and evaluation of vaccination programmes. Our aim was to quantify the impact of long-standing vaccination programmes onnotified cases in the Netherlands. We collected and digitised previously unavailable monthly case notifications of diphtheria, poliomyelitis, mumps and rubella in the Netherlands over the period 1919–2015. Poisson regression models accounting for seasonality, multi-year cycles, secular trends and auto-correlation were fit to pre-vaccination periods. Cases averted were calculated as the difference between observed and expected cases based on model projections. In the first 13 years of mass vaccinations, case notifications declined rapidly with 82.4% (95% credible interval (CI): 74.9–87.6) of notified cases of diphtheria averted, 92.9% (95% CI 85.0–97.2) cases of poliomyelitis, and 79.1% (95% CI 67.1–87.4) cases of mumps. Vaccination of 11-year-old girls against rubella averted 49.9% (95% CI 9.3–73.5) of cases, while universal vaccination averted 68.1% (95% CI 19.4–87.3) of cases. These findings show that vaccinationprogrammes have contributed substantially to the reduction of infectious diseases in the Netherlands.

AB - Vaccination programmes are considered a main contributor to the decline of infectious diseases over the 20th century. In recent years, the national vaccination coverage in the Netherlands has been declining, highlighting the need for continuous monitoring and evaluation of vaccination programmes. Our aim was to quantify the impact of long-standing vaccination programmes onnotified cases in the Netherlands. We collected and digitised previously unavailable monthly case notifications of diphtheria, poliomyelitis, mumps and rubella in the Netherlands over the period 1919–2015. Poisson regression models accounting for seasonality, multi-year cycles, secular trends and auto-correlation were fit to pre-vaccination periods. Cases averted were calculated as the difference between observed and expected cases based on model projections. In the first 13 years of mass vaccinations, case notifications declined rapidly with 82.4% (95% credible interval (CI): 74.9–87.6) of notified cases of diphtheria averted, 92.9% (95% CI 85.0–97.2) cases of poliomyelitis, and 79.1% (95% CI 67.1–87.4) cases of mumps. Vaccination of 11-year-old girls against rubella averted 49.9% (95% CI 9.3–73.5) of cases, while universal vaccination averted 68.1% (95% CI 19.4–87.3) of cases. These findings show that vaccinationprogrammes have contributed substantially to the reduction of infectious diseases in the Netherlands.

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KW - vaccine-preventable diseases

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JO - Epidemiology and Infection

JF - Epidemiology and Infection

IS - 6

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Quantifying the impact of mass vaccination programmes on notified cases in the Netherlands

Abstract

Bibliografisk note

Link til dokument

Andre filer og links

Publikation

Trends in governmental expenditure on vaccination programmes in the Netherlands, a historical analysis

Projekter

The public health impact of vaccination programmes in the Netherlands. A historical analysis of mortality, morbidity, and costs

Aktiviteter

Looking back - the effects of more than half a century of vaccination programmes [Een blik terug – De effecten van meer dan een halve eeuw vaccineren]

Citer dette