Project Portfolio Improvability: Measuring expected value against predicted success in order to decide and improve the project portfolio

Project Portfolio Management (PPM) focuses on the integration and alignment of projects with the business operation in order to achieve most value and cost-efficiency for the investment in projects. PPM is often a challenge and especially so for improvement projects where PPM is considerably underdeveloped. In this paper, we present a model for Project Portfolio Improvement combining predicted success and expected value. The core of the model is about measuring expected value up against a measure of the predicted project success rate. Value can for example be measured as earnings/profit, maturity, and/or efficiency. Success can be measured using the ImprovAbility model that is part of ISO 33014. We then present a case from Vestas, one of the leading windmill producers in the world. Vestas have used the model for project portfolio management in three rounds in 2016-19 to improve their abilities and increase the rate of success dramatically. Finally, we conclude that our generic model may be very useful for process improvement and innovation PPM in other companies.