Probabilidad condicional como herramienta para la toma de decisiones: una secuencia didáctica

Raimundo Elicer, Eduardo Carrasco

Publikation: Bidrag til bog/antologi/rapportKonferencebidrag i proceedingsForskningpeer review

Abstract

Bet and strategy are the paths for decision making under uncertainty, a reality that one cannot avoid. Particularly, conditional probability arises as a tool for analyzing a strategy that molds to new conditions. Under the framework of didactic engineering, elements of the a priori analysis of a didactic sequence which emphasizes this use are given. A sequence which utilizes the Monty Hall problem as a diachronic game, jeopardizing conditional probability, is proposed. One can conjecture that students will use socioemotional elements and a wrong perception of the sample space to make decisions. It is likely to expect that after several simulations of the game the need for a correct calculation of success probability under each possible decision will arise.
Bidragets oversatte titelConditional probability as a decision-making tool: a didactic sequence
OriginalsprogSpansk
TitelXIX Jornadas Nacionales de Educación Matemática
RedaktørerMarcela Parraguez, Hernán Rivas, Claudia Vásquez, Nataly Pincheira, Horacio Solar, Francisco Rojas, Eugenio Chandia
Antal sider7
Udgivelses stedVillarrica, Chile
ForlagSociedad Chilena de Educación Matemática
Publikationsdato2015
Sider231-237
StatusUdgivet - 2015
Udgivet eksterntJa

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