Bet and strategy are the paths for decision making under uncertainty, a reality that one cannot avoid. Particularly, conditional probability arises as a tool for analyzing a strategy that molds to new conditions. Under the framework of didactic engineering, elements of the a priori analysis of a didactic sequence which emphasizes this use are given. A sequence which utilizes the Monty Hall problem as a diachronic game, jeopardizing conditional probability, is proposed. One can conjecture that students will use socioemotional elements and a wrong perception of the sample space to make decisions. It is likely to expect that after several simulations of the game the need for a correct calculation of success probability under each possible decision will arise.
|Bidragets oversatte titel||Conditional probability as a decision-making tool: a didactic sequence|
|Titel||XIX Jornadas Nacionales de Educación Matemática|
|Redaktører||Marcela Parraguez, Hernán Rivas, Claudia Vásquez, Nataly Pincheira, Horacio Solar, Francisco Rojas, Eugenio Chandia|
|Udgivelses sted||Villarrica, Chile|
|Forlag||Sociedad Chilena de Educación Matemática|
|Status||Udgivet - 2015|