Probabilidad condicional como herramienta para la toma de decisiones: una secuencia didáctica

Raimundo Elicer, Eduardo Carrasco

Publikation: Bidrag til bog/antologi/rapportKonferencebidrag i proceedingsForskningpeer review

Resumé

Bet and strategy are the paths for decision making under uncertainty, a reality that one cannot avoid. Particularly, conditional probability arises as a tool for analyzing a strategy that molds to new conditions. Under the framework of didactic engineering, elements of the a priori analysis of a didactic sequence which emphasizes this use are given. A sequence which utilizes the Monty Hall problem as a diachronic game, jeopardizing conditional probability, is proposed. One can conjecture that students will use socioemotional elements and a wrong perception of the sample space to make decisions. It is likely to expect that after several simulations of the game the need for a correct calculation of success probability under each possible decision will arise.
OriginalsprogSpansk
TitelXIX Jornadas Nacionales de Educación Matemática
RedaktørerMarcela Parraguez, Hernán Rivas, Claudia Vásquez, Nataly Pincheira, Horacio Solar, Francisco Rojas, Eugenio Chandia
Antal sider7
Udgivelses stedVillarrica, Chile
ForlagSociedad Chilena de Educación Matemática
Publikationsdato2015
Sider231-237
StatusUdgivet - 2015
Udgivet eksterntJa

Citer dette

Elicer, R., & Carrasco, E. (2015). Probabilidad condicional como herramienta para la toma de decisiones: una secuencia didáctica. I M. Parraguez, H. Rivas, C. Vásquez, N. Pincheira, H. Solar, F. Rojas, & E. Chandia (red.), XIX Jornadas Nacionales de Educación Matemática (s. 231-237). Villarrica, Chile: Sociedad Chilena de Educación Matemática.
Elicer, Raimundo ; Carrasco, Eduardo. / Probabilidad condicional como herramienta para la toma de decisiones: una secuencia didáctica. XIX Jornadas Nacionales de Educación Matemática. red. / Marcela Parraguez ; Hernán Rivas ; Claudia Vásquez ; Nataly Pincheira ; Horacio Solar ; Francisco Rojas ; Eugenio Chandia. Villarrica, Chile : Sociedad Chilena de Educación Matemática, 2015. s. 231-237
@inproceedings{01696d1818ed4586822b97ccc2aa2c59,
title = "Probabilidad condicional como herramienta para la toma de decisiones: una secuencia did{\'a}ctica",
abstract = "Bet and strategy are the paths for decision making under uncertainty, a reality that one cannot avoid. Particularly, conditional probability arises as a tool for analyzing a strategy that molds to new conditions. Under the framework of didactic engineering, elements of the a priori analysis of a didactic sequence which emphasizes this use are given. A sequence which utilizes the Monty Hall problem as a diachronic game, jeopardizing conditional probability, is proposed. One can conjecture that students will use socioemotional elements and a wrong perception of the sample space to make decisions. It is likely to expect that after several simulations of the game the need for a correct calculation of success probability under each possible decision will arise.",
keywords = "probability, conditional, engineering, didactic",
author = "Raimundo Elicer and Eduardo Carrasco",
year = "2015",
language = "Spansk",
pages = "231--237",
editor = "Marcela Parraguez and Hern{\'a}n Rivas and Claudia V{\'a}squez and Nataly Pincheira and Horacio Solar and Francisco Rojas and Eugenio Chandia",
booktitle = "XIX Jornadas Nacionales de Educaci{\'o}n Matem{\'a}tica",
publisher = "Sociedad Chilena de Educaci{\'o}n Matem{\'a}tica",

}

Elicer, R & Carrasco, E 2015, Probabilidad condicional como herramienta para la toma de decisiones: una secuencia didáctica. i M Parraguez, H Rivas, C Vásquez, N Pincheira, H Solar, F Rojas & E Chandia (red), XIX Jornadas Nacionales de Educación Matemática. Sociedad Chilena de Educación Matemática, Villarrica, Chile, s. 231-237.

Probabilidad condicional como herramienta para la toma de decisiones: una secuencia didáctica. / Elicer, Raimundo; Carrasco, Eduardo.

XIX Jornadas Nacionales de Educación Matemática. red. / Marcela Parraguez; Hernán Rivas; Claudia Vásquez; Nataly Pincheira; Horacio Solar; Francisco Rojas; Eugenio Chandia. Villarrica, Chile : Sociedad Chilena de Educación Matemática, 2015. s. 231-237.

Publikation: Bidrag til bog/antologi/rapportKonferencebidrag i proceedingsForskningpeer review

TY - GEN

T1 - Probabilidad condicional como herramienta para la toma de decisiones: una secuencia didáctica

AU - Elicer, Raimundo

AU - Carrasco, Eduardo

PY - 2015

Y1 - 2015

N2 - Bet and strategy are the paths for decision making under uncertainty, a reality that one cannot avoid. Particularly, conditional probability arises as a tool for analyzing a strategy that molds to new conditions. Under the framework of didactic engineering, elements of the a priori analysis of a didactic sequence which emphasizes this use are given. A sequence which utilizes the Monty Hall problem as a diachronic game, jeopardizing conditional probability, is proposed. One can conjecture that students will use socioemotional elements and a wrong perception of the sample space to make decisions. It is likely to expect that after several simulations of the game the need for a correct calculation of success probability under each possible decision will arise.

AB - Bet and strategy are the paths for decision making under uncertainty, a reality that one cannot avoid. Particularly, conditional probability arises as a tool for analyzing a strategy that molds to new conditions. Under the framework of didactic engineering, elements of the a priori analysis of a didactic sequence which emphasizes this use are given. A sequence which utilizes the Monty Hall problem as a diachronic game, jeopardizing conditional probability, is proposed. One can conjecture that students will use socioemotional elements and a wrong perception of the sample space to make decisions. It is likely to expect that after several simulations of the game the need for a correct calculation of success probability under each possible decision will arise.

KW - probability

KW - conditional

KW - engineering

KW - didactic

UR - http://www.sochiem.cl/documentos/xix-jnem-libro-actas.pdf

M3 - Konferencebidrag i proceedings

SP - 231

EP - 237

BT - XIX Jornadas Nacionales de Educación Matemática

A2 - Parraguez, Marcela

A2 - Rivas, Hernán

A2 - Vásquez, Claudia

A2 - Pincheira, Nataly

A2 - Solar, Horacio

A2 - Rojas, Francisco

A2 - Chandia, Eugenio

PB - Sociedad Chilena de Educación Matemática

CY - Villarrica, Chile

ER -

Elicer R, Carrasco E. Probabilidad condicional como herramienta para la toma de decisiones: una secuencia didáctica. I Parraguez M, Rivas H, Vásquez C, Pincheira N, Solar H, Rojas F, Chandia E, red., XIX Jornadas Nacionales de Educación Matemática. Villarrica, Chile: Sociedad Chilena de Educación Matemática. 2015. s. 231-237