Mortality burden of the 2009-10 influenza pandemic in the United States

Improving the timeliness of influenza severity estimates using inpatient mortality records

V. Charu, L. Simonsen, R. Lustig, C. Steiner, Cecile Viboud

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

Resumé

Background Delays in the release of national vital statistics hinder timely assessment of influenza severity, especially during pandemics. Inpatient mortality records could provide timelier estimates of influenza‐associated mortality. Methods We compiled weekly age‐specific deaths for various causes from US State Inpatient Databases (1990–2010) and national vital statistics (1990–2009). We calculated influenza‐attributable excess deaths by season based on Poisson regression models driven by indicators of respiratory virus activity, seasonality, and temporal trends. Results Extrapolations of excess mortality from inpatient data fell within 11% and 17% of vital statistics estimates for pandemic and seasonal influenza, respectively, with high year‐to‐year correlation (Spearman's rho = 0·87–0·90, P < 0·001, n = 19). We attribute 14 800 excess respiratory and cardiac deaths (95% CI: 10 000–19 650) to pandemic influenza activity during April 2009–April 2010, 79% of which occurred in people under 65 years. Conclusions Modeling inpatient mortality records provides useful estimates of influenza severity in advance of national vital statistics release, capturing both the magnitude and the age distribution of pandemic and epidemic deaths. We provide the first age‐ and cause‐specific estimates of the 2009 pandemic mortality burden using traditional ‘excess mortality’ methods, confirming the unusual burden of this virus in young populations. Our inpatient‐based approach could help monitor mortality trends in other infectious diseases.
OriginalsprogEngelsk
TidsskriftInfluenza and Other Respiratory Viruses
Vol/bind7
Udgave nummer5
Sider (fra-til)863-871
Antal sider9
ISSN1750-2640
DOI
StatusUdgivet - 2013
Udgivet eksterntJa

Citer dette

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title = "Mortality burden of the 2009-10 influenza pandemic in the United States: Improving the timeliness of influenza severity estimates using inpatient mortality records",
abstract = "Background Delays in the release of national vital statistics hinder timely assessment of influenza severity, especially during pandemics. Inpatient mortality records could provide timelier estimates of influenza‐associated mortality. Methods We compiled weekly age‐specific deaths for various causes from US State Inpatient Databases (1990–2010) and national vital statistics (1990–2009). We calculated influenza‐attributable excess deaths by season based on Poisson regression models driven by indicators of respiratory virus activity, seasonality, and temporal trends. Results Extrapolations of excess mortality from inpatient data fell within 11{\%} and 17{\%} of vital statistics estimates for pandemic and seasonal influenza, respectively, with high year‐to‐year correlation (Spearman's rho = 0·87–0·90, P < 0·001, n = 19). We attribute 14 800 excess respiratory and cardiac deaths (95{\%} CI: 10 000–19 650) to pandemic influenza activity during April 2009–April 2010, 79{\%} of which occurred in people under 65 years. Conclusions Modeling inpatient mortality records provides useful estimates of influenza severity in advance of national vital statistics release, capturing both the magnitude and the age distribution of pandemic and epidemic deaths. We provide the first age‐ and cause‐specific estimates of the 2009 pandemic mortality burden using traditional ‘excess mortality’ methods, confirming the unusual burden of this virus in young populations. Our inpatient‐based approach could help monitor mortality trends in other infectious diseases.",
author = "V. Charu and L. Simonsen and R. Lustig and C. Steiner and Cecile Viboud",
year = "2013",
doi = "10.1111/irv.12096",
language = "English",
volume = "7",
pages = "863--871",
journal = "Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses",
issn = "1750-2640",
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Mortality burden of the 2009-10 influenza pandemic in the United States : Improving the timeliness of influenza severity estimates using inpatient mortality records. / Charu, V.; Simonsen, L.; Lustig, R.; Steiner, C.; Viboud, Cecile.

I: Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses, Bind 7, Nr. 5, 2013, s. 863-871.

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Mortality burden of the 2009-10 influenza pandemic in the United States

T2 - Improving the timeliness of influenza severity estimates using inpatient mortality records

AU - Charu, V.

AU - Simonsen, L.

AU - Lustig, R.

AU - Steiner, C.

AU - Viboud, Cecile

PY - 2013

Y1 - 2013

N2 - Background Delays in the release of national vital statistics hinder timely assessment of influenza severity, especially during pandemics. Inpatient mortality records could provide timelier estimates of influenza‐associated mortality. Methods We compiled weekly age‐specific deaths for various causes from US State Inpatient Databases (1990–2010) and national vital statistics (1990–2009). We calculated influenza‐attributable excess deaths by season based on Poisson regression models driven by indicators of respiratory virus activity, seasonality, and temporal trends. Results Extrapolations of excess mortality from inpatient data fell within 11% and 17% of vital statistics estimates for pandemic and seasonal influenza, respectively, with high year‐to‐year correlation (Spearman's rho = 0·87–0·90, P < 0·001, n = 19). We attribute 14 800 excess respiratory and cardiac deaths (95% CI: 10 000–19 650) to pandemic influenza activity during April 2009–April 2010, 79% of which occurred in people under 65 years. Conclusions Modeling inpatient mortality records provides useful estimates of influenza severity in advance of national vital statistics release, capturing both the magnitude and the age distribution of pandemic and epidemic deaths. We provide the first age‐ and cause‐specific estimates of the 2009 pandemic mortality burden using traditional ‘excess mortality’ methods, confirming the unusual burden of this virus in young populations. Our inpatient‐based approach could help monitor mortality trends in other infectious diseases.

AB - Background Delays in the release of national vital statistics hinder timely assessment of influenza severity, especially during pandemics. Inpatient mortality records could provide timelier estimates of influenza‐associated mortality. Methods We compiled weekly age‐specific deaths for various causes from US State Inpatient Databases (1990–2010) and national vital statistics (1990–2009). We calculated influenza‐attributable excess deaths by season based on Poisson regression models driven by indicators of respiratory virus activity, seasonality, and temporal trends. Results Extrapolations of excess mortality from inpatient data fell within 11% and 17% of vital statistics estimates for pandemic and seasonal influenza, respectively, with high year‐to‐year correlation (Spearman's rho = 0·87–0·90, P < 0·001, n = 19). We attribute 14 800 excess respiratory and cardiac deaths (95% CI: 10 000–19 650) to pandemic influenza activity during April 2009–April 2010, 79% of which occurred in people under 65 years. Conclusions Modeling inpatient mortality records provides useful estimates of influenza severity in advance of national vital statistics release, capturing both the magnitude and the age distribution of pandemic and epidemic deaths. We provide the first age‐ and cause‐specific estimates of the 2009 pandemic mortality burden using traditional ‘excess mortality’ methods, confirming the unusual burden of this virus in young populations. Our inpatient‐based approach could help monitor mortality trends in other infectious diseases.

U2 - 10.1111/irv.12096

DO - 10.1111/irv.12096

M3 - Journal article

VL - 7

SP - 863

EP - 871

JO - Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses

JF - Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses

SN - 1750-2640

IS - 5

ER -