Monthly variation in the probability of presence of adult Culicoides populations in nine European countries and the implications for targeted surveillance

Ana Carolina Cuéllar, Lene Jung Kjær, Andreas Baum, Anders Stockmarr, Henrik Skovgard, Søren Achim Nielsen, Mats Gunnar Andersson, Anders Lindstrom, Jan Chirico, Renke Lühken, Sonja Steinke, Ellen Kiel, Jörn Gethmann, Franz J. Conraths, Magdalena Larska, Marcin Smreczak, Anna Orłowska, Inger Hamnes, Ståle Sviland, Petter Hopp & 21 andre Katharina Brugger, Franz Rubel, Thomas Balenghien, Claire Garros, Ignace Rakotoarivony, Xavier Allène, Jonathan Lhoir, David Chavernac, Jean-Claude Delécolle, Bruno Mathieu, Delphine Delécolle, Marie-Laure Setier-Rio, Roger Venail, Bethsabée Scheid, Miguel Ángel Miranda Chueca, Carlos Barceló, Javier Lucientes, Rosa Estrada, Alexander Mathis, Wesley Tack, Rene Bødker

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

Resumé

Background
Biting midges of the genus Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are small hematophagous insects responsible for the transmission of bluetongue virus, Schmallenberg virus and African horse sickness virus to wild and domestic ruminants and equids. Outbreaks of these viruses have caused economic damage within the European Union. The spatio-temporal distribution of biting midges is a key factor in identifying areas with the potential for disease spread. The aim of this study was to identify and map areas of neglectable adult activity for each month in an average year. Average monthly risk maps can be used as a tool when allocating resources for surveillance and control programs within Europe.

Methods
We modelled the occurrence of C. imicola and the Obsoletus and Pulicaris ensembles using existing entomological surveillance data from Spain, France, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Poland. The monthly probability of each vector species and ensembles being present in Europe based on climatic and environmental input variables was estimated with the machine learning technique Random Forest. Subsequently, the monthly probability was classified into three classes: Absence, Presence and Uncertain status. These three classes are useful for mapping areas of no risk, areas of high-risk targeted for animal movement restrictions, and areas with an uncertain status that need active entomological surveillance to determine whether or not vectors are present.

Results
The distribution of Culicoides species ensembles were in agreement with their previously reported distribution in Europe. The Random Forest models were very accurate in predicting the probability of presence for C. imicola (mean AUC = 0.95), less accurate for the Obsoletus ensemble (mean AUC = 0.84), while the lowest accuracy was found for the Pulicaris ensemble (mean AUC = 0.71). The most important environmental variables in the models were related to temperature and precipitation for all three groups.

Conclusions
The duration periods with low or null adult activity can be derived from the associated monthly distribution maps, and it was also possible to identify and map areas with uncertain predictions. In the absence of ongoing vector surveillance, these maps can be used by veterinary authorities to classify areas as likely vector-free or as likely risk areas from southern Spain to northern Sweden with acceptable precision. The maps can also focus costly entomological surveillance to seasons and areas where the predictions and vector-free status remain uncertain.
OriginalsprogEngelsk
TidsskriftParasites & Vectors
Vol/bind11
Udgave nummer608
Antal sider19
ISSN1756-3305
DOI
StatusUdgivet - 2018

Emneord

  • Culicoides
  • Random Forest
  • Machine Learning
  • Europe
  • Monthly distribution
  • Spatial distribution
  • Presence-absence data
  • Targeted surveillance

Citer dette

Cuéllar, Ana Carolina ; Kjær, Lene Jung ; Baum, Andreas ; Stockmarr, Anders ; Skovgard, Henrik ; Nielsen, Søren Achim ; Andersson, Mats Gunnar ; Lindstrom, Anders ; Chirico, Jan ; Lühken, Renke ; Steinke, Sonja ; Kiel, Ellen ; Gethmann, Jörn ; Conraths, Franz J. ; Larska, Magdalena ; Smreczak, Marcin ; Orłowska, Anna ; Hamnes, Inger ; Sviland, Ståle ; Hopp, Petter ; Brugger, Katharina ; Rubel, Franz ; Balenghien, Thomas ; Garros, Claire ; Rakotoarivony, Ignace ; Allène, Xavier ; Lhoir, Jonathan ; Chavernac, David ; Delécolle, Jean-Claude ; Mathieu, Bruno ; Delécolle, Delphine ; Setier-Rio, Marie-Laure ; Venail, Roger ; Scheid, Bethsabée ; Chueca, Miguel Ángel Miranda ; Barceló, Carlos ; Lucientes, Javier ; Estrada, Rosa ; Mathis, Alexander ; Tack, Wesley ; Bødker, Rene. / Monthly variation in the probability of presence of adult Culicoides populations in nine European countries and the implications for targeted surveillance. I: Parasites & Vectors. 2018 ; Bind 11, Nr. 608.
@article{1ed739f7dd7c4c9fac725926b1806145,
title = "Monthly variation in the probability of presence of adult Culicoides populations in nine European countries and the implications for targeted surveillance",
abstract = "BackgroundBiting midges of the genus Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are small hematophagous insects responsible for the transmission of bluetongue virus, Schmallenberg virus and African horse sickness virus to wild and domestic ruminants and equids. Outbreaks of these viruses have caused economic damage within the European Union. The spatio-temporal distribution of biting midges is a key factor in identifying areas with the potential for disease spread. The aim of this study was to identify and map areas of neglectable adult activity for each month in an average year. Average monthly risk maps can be used as a tool when allocating resources for surveillance and control programs within Europe.MethodsWe modelled the occurrence of C. imicola and the Obsoletus and Pulicaris ensembles using existing entomological surveillance data from Spain, France, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Poland. The monthly probability of each vector species and ensembles being present in Europe based on climatic and environmental input variables was estimated with the machine learning technique Random Forest. Subsequently, the monthly probability was classified into three classes: Absence, Presence and Uncertain status. These three classes are useful for mapping areas of no risk, areas of high-risk targeted for animal movement restrictions, and areas with an uncertain status that need active entomological surveillance to determine whether or not vectors are present.ResultsThe distribution of Culicoides species ensembles were in agreement with their previously reported distribution in Europe. The Random Forest models were very accurate in predicting the probability of presence for C. imicola (mean AUC = 0.95), less accurate for the Obsoletus ensemble (mean AUC = 0.84), while the lowest accuracy was found for the Pulicaris ensemble (mean AUC = 0.71). The most important environmental variables in the models were related to temperature and precipitation for all three groups.ConclusionsThe duration periods with low or null adult activity can be derived from the associated monthly distribution maps, and it was also possible to identify and map areas with uncertain predictions. In the absence of ongoing vector surveillance, these maps can be used by veterinary authorities to classify areas as likely vector-free or as likely risk areas from southern Spain to northern Sweden with acceptable precision. The maps can also focus costly entomological surveillance to seasons and areas where the predictions and vector-free status remain uncertain.",
keywords = "Culicoides, Random Forest, Machine Learning, Europe, Monthly distribution, Spatial distribution, Presence-absence data, Targeted surveillance, Culicoides, Random Forest, Machine Learning, Europe, Monthly distribution, Spatial distribution, Presence-absence data, Targeted surveillance",
author = "Cu{\'e}llar, {Ana Carolina} and Kj{\ae}r, {Lene Jung} and Andreas Baum and Anders Stockmarr and Henrik Skovgard and Nielsen, {S{\o}ren Achim} and Andersson, {Mats Gunnar} and Anders Lindstrom and Jan Chirico and Renke L{\"u}hken and Sonja Steinke and Ellen Kiel and J{\"o}rn Gethmann and Conraths, {Franz J.} and Magdalena Larska and Marcin Smreczak and Anna Orłowska and Inger Hamnes and St{\aa}le Sviland and Petter Hopp and Katharina Brugger and Franz Rubel and Thomas Balenghien and Claire Garros and Ignace Rakotoarivony and Xavier All{\`e}ne and Jonathan Lhoir and David Chavernac and Jean-Claude Del{\'e}colle and Bruno Mathieu and Delphine Del{\'e}colle and Marie-Laure Setier-Rio and Roger Venail and Bethsab{\'e}e Scheid and Chueca, {Miguel {\'A}ngel Miranda} and Carlos Barcel{\'o} and Javier Lucientes and Rosa Estrada and Alexander Mathis and Wesley Tack and Rene B{\o}dker",
year = "2018",
doi = "10.1186/s13071-018-3182-0",
language = "English",
volume = "11",
journal = "Parasites & Vectors",
issn = "1756-3305",
publisher = "BioMed Central",
number = "608",

}

Cuéllar, AC, Kjær, LJ, Baum, A, Stockmarr, A, Skovgard, H, Nielsen, SA, Andersson, MG, Lindstrom, A, Chirico, J, Lühken, R, Steinke, S, Kiel, E, Gethmann, J, Conraths, FJ, Larska, M, Smreczak, M, Orłowska, A, Hamnes, I, Sviland, S, Hopp, P, Brugger, K, Rubel, F, Balenghien, T, Garros, C, Rakotoarivony, I, Allène, X, Lhoir, J, Chavernac, D, Delécolle, J-C, Mathieu, B, Delécolle, D, Setier-Rio, M-L, Venail, R, Scheid, B, Chueca, MÁM, Barceló, C, Lucientes, J, Estrada, R, Mathis, A, Tack, W & Bødker, R 2018, 'Monthly variation in the probability of presence of adult Culicoides populations in nine European countries and the implications for targeted surveillance', Parasites & Vectors, bind 11, nr. 608. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-018-3182-0

Monthly variation in the probability of presence of adult Culicoides populations in nine European countries and the implications for targeted surveillance. / Cuéllar, Ana Carolina; Kjær, Lene Jung; Baum, Andreas; Stockmarr, Anders; Skovgard, Henrik ; Nielsen, Søren Achim; Andersson, Mats Gunnar; Lindstrom, Anders; Chirico, Jan; Lühken, Renke; Steinke, Sonja; Kiel, Ellen; Gethmann, Jörn; Conraths, Franz J.; Larska, Magdalena; Smreczak, Marcin; Orłowska, Anna; Hamnes, Inger; Sviland, Ståle; Hopp, Petter; Brugger, Katharina; Rubel, Franz; Balenghien, Thomas; Garros, Claire; Rakotoarivony, Ignace; Allène, Xavier; Lhoir, Jonathan; Chavernac, David; Delécolle, Jean-Claude; Mathieu, Bruno; Delécolle, Delphine; Setier-Rio, Marie-Laure; Venail, Roger; Scheid, Bethsabée; Chueca, Miguel Ángel Miranda; Barceló, Carlos; Lucientes, Javier; Estrada, Rosa; Mathis, Alexander; Tack, Wesley; Bødker, Rene.

I: Parasites & Vectors, Bind 11, Nr. 608, 2018.

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Monthly variation in the probability of presence of adult Culicoides populations in nine European countries and the implications for targeted surveillance

AU - Cuéllar, Ana Carolina

AU - Kjær, Lene Jung

AU - Baum, Andreas

AU - Stockmarr, Anders

AU - Skovgard, Henrik

AU - Nielsen, Søren Achim

AU - Andersson, Mats Gunnar

AU - Lindstrom, Anders

AU - Chirico, Jan

AU - Lühken, Renke

AU - Steinke, Sonja

AU - Kiel, Ellen

AU - Gethmann, Jörn

AU - Conraths, Franz J.

AU - Larska, Magdalena

AU - Smreczak, Marcin

AU - Orłowska, Anna

AU - Hamnes, Inger

AU - Sviland, Ståle

AU - Hopp, Petter

AU - Brugger, Katharina

AU - Rubel, Franz

AU - Balenghien, Thomas

AU - Garros, Claire

AU - Rakotoarivony, Ignace

AU - Allène, Xavier

AU - Lhoir, Jonathan

AU - Chavernac, David

AU - Delécolle, Jean-Claude

AU - Mathieu, Bruno

AU - Delécolle, Delphine

AU - Setier-Rio, Marie-Laure

AU - Venail, Roger

AU - Scheid, Bethsabée

AU - Chueca, Miguel Ángel Miranda

AU - Barceló, Carlos

AU - Lucientes, Javier

AU - Estrada, Rosa

AU - Mathis, Alexander

AU - Tack, Wesley

AU - Bødker, Rene

PY - 2018

Y1 - 2018

N2 - BackgroundBiting midges of the genus Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are small hematophagous insects responsible for the transmission of bluetongue virus, Schmallenberg virus and African horse sickness virus to wild and domestic ruminants and equids. Outbreaks of these viruses have caused economic damage within the European Union. The spatio-temporal distribution of biting midges is a key factor in identifying areas with the potential for disease spread. The aim of this study was to identify and map areas of neglectable adult activity for each month in an average year. Average monthly risk maps can be used as a tool when allocating resources for surveillance and control programs within Europe.MethodsWe modelled the occurrence of C. imicola and the Obsoletus and Pulicaris ensembles using existing entomological surveillance data from Spain, France, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Poland. The monthly probability of each vector species and ensembles being present in Europe based on climatic and environmental input variables was estimated with the machine learning technique Random Forest. Subsequently, the monthly probability was classified into three classes: Absence, Presence and Uncertain status. These three classes are useful for mapping areas of no risk, areas of high-risk targeted for animal movement restrictions, and areas with an uncertain status that need active entomological surveillance to determine whether or not vectors are present.ResultsThe distribution of Culicoides species ensembles were in agreement with their previously reported distribution in Europe. The Random Forest models were very accurate in predicting the probability of presence for C. imicola (mean AUC = 0.95), less accurate for the Obsoletus ensemble (mean AUC = 0.84), while the lowest accuracy was found for the Pulicaris ensemble (mean AUC = 0.71). The most important environmental variables in the models were related to temperature and precipitation for all three groups.ConclusionsThe duration periods with low or null adult activity can be derived from the associated monthly distribution maps, and it was also possible to identify and map areas with uncertain predictions. In the absence of ongoing vector surveillance, these maps can be used by veterinary authorities to classify areas as likely vector-free or as likely risk areas from southern Spain to northern Sweden with acceptable precision. The maps can also focus costly entomological surveillance to seasons and areas where the predictions and vector-free status remain uncertain.

AB - BackgroundBiting midges of the genus Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are small hematophagous insects responsible for the transmission of bluetongue virus, Schmallenberg virus and African horse sickness virus to wild and domestic ruminants and equids. Outbreaks of these viruses have caused economic damage within the European Union. The spatio-temporal distribution of biting midges is a key factor in identifying areas with the potential for disease spread. The aim of this study was to identify and map areas of neglectable adult activity for each month in an average year. Average monthly risk maps can be used as a tool when allocating resources for surveillance and control programs within Europe.MethodsWe modelled the occurrence of C. imicola and the Obsoletus and Pulicaris ensembles using existing entomological surveillance data from Spain, France, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Poland. The monthly probability of each vector species and ensembles being present in Europe based on climatic and environmental input variables was estimated with the machine learning technique Random Forest. Subsequently, the monthly probability was classified into three classes: Absence, Presence and Uncertain status. These three classes are useful for mapping areas of no risk, areas of high-risk targeted for animal movement restrictions, and areas with an uncertain status that need active entomological surveillance to determine whether or not vectors are present.ResultsThe distribution of Culicoides species ensembles were in agreement with their previously reported distribution in Europe. The Random Forest models were very accurate in predicting the probability of presence for C. imicola (mean AUC = 0.95), less accurate for the Obsoletus ensemble (mean AUC = 0.84), while the lowest accuracy was found for the Pulicaris ensemble (mean AUC = 0.71). The most important environmental variables in the models were related to temperature and precipitation for all three groups.ConclusionsThe duration periods with low or null adult activity can be derived from the associated monthly distribution maps, and it was also possible to identify and map areas with uncertain predictions. In the absence of ongoing vector surveillance, these maps can be used by veterinary authorities to classify areas as likely vector-free or as likely risk areas from southern Spain to northern Sweden with acceptable precision. The maps can also focus costly entomological surveillance to seasons and areas where the predictions and vector-free status remain uncertain.

KW - Culicoides

KW - Random Forest

KW - Machine Learning

KW - Europe

KW - Monthly distribution

KW - Spatial distribution

KW - Presence-absence data

KW - Targeted surveillance

KW - Culicoides

KW - Random Forest

KW - Machine Learning

KW - Europe

KW - Monthly distribution

KW - Spatial distribution

KW - Presence-absence data

KW - Targeted surveillance

U2 - 10.1186/s13071-018-3182-0

DO - 10.1186/s13071-018-3182-0

M3 - Journal article

VL - 11

JO - Parasites & Vectors

JF - Parasites & Vectors

SN - 1756-3305

IS - 608

ER -