How valid are common indicators of political risk used in IB research and practice?

Publikation: KonferencebidragKonferenceabstrakt til konferenceForskningpeer review

Resumé

Using international business research about political risk as a field experiment the papers seeks to assess the validity of current political risk or governance indicators. Vernon’s claim with the obsolescing bargaining model (OBM) that political risk plays out at the project rather than country level is investigated.
Relationships are analysed among longitudinal, quarterly historical data series on: political events, expert-based political risk assessments and activity data. The aim is to show that by observing entrepreneurial investment activity at the project level we can get closer to predict political uncertainty and as it plays out
via negative political events with massive material damage. Preliminary findings based on Granger causality testing combined with ordinary benchmark coefficient estimates using panel data techniques render relatively strong support for this claim. The implications could be that by observing other firms’ experiences rather than relying on expert-based risk indicators, investors could get deeper insights into political risk, as it occurs and therefore also to some extent be able to better predict and avoid it.
OriginalsprogEngelsk
Publikationsdato15 feb. 2019
StatusAccepteret/In press - 15 feb. 2019
BegivenhedAIB 2019 Annual Meeting - Copenhagen Business School, Copenhagen, Danmark
Varighed: 24 jun. 201927 jun. 2019
https://aib.msu.edu/events/2019/Program.asp

Konference

KonferenceAIB 2019 Annual Meeting
LokationCopenhagen Business School
LandDanmark
ByCopenhagen
Periode24/06/201927/06/2019
Internetadresse

Emneord

    Citer dette

    Jensen, C. (Accepteret/In press). How valid are common indicators of political risk used in IB research and practice?. Abstract fra AIB 2019 Annual Meeting, Copenhagen, Danmark.
    @conference{2bbda570d784418c9d10c2bc810be125,
    title = "How valid are common indicators of political risk used in IB research and practice?",
    abstract = "Using international business research about political risk as a field experiment the papers seeks to assess the validity of current political risk or governance indicators. Vernon’s claim with the obsolescing bargaining model (OBM) that political risk plays out at the project rather than country level is investigated.Relationships are analysed among longitudinal, quarterly historical data series on: political events, expert-based political risk assessments and activity data. The aim is to show that by observing entrepreneurial investment activity at the project level we can get closer to predict political uncertainty and as it plays outvia negative political events with massive material damage. Preliminary findings based on Granger causality testing combined with ordinary benchmark coefficient estimates using panel data techniques render relatively strong support for this claim. The implications could be that by observing other firms’ experiences rather than relying on expert-based risk indicators, investors could get deeper insights into political risk, as it occurs and therefore also to some extent be able to better predict and avoid it.",
    keywords = "Political risk, Risk assessment, Event data, Triangulation, Granger causality test, Panel data",
    author = "Camilla Jensen",
    year = "2019",
    month = "2",
    day = "15",
    language = "English",
    note = "AIB 2019 Annual Meeting ; Conference date: 24-06-2019 Through 27-06-2019",
    url = "https://aib.msu.edu/events/2019/Program.asp",

    }

    How valid are common indicators of political risk used in IB research and practice? / Jensen, Camilla.

    2019. Abstract fra AIB 2019 Annual Meeting, Copenhagen, Danmark.

    Publikation: KonferencebidragKonferenceabstrakt til konferenceForskningpeer review

    TY - ABST

    T1 - How valid are common indicators of political risk used in IB research and practice?

    AU - Jensen, Camilla

    PY - 2019/2/15

    Y1 - 2019/2/15

    N2 - Using international business research about political risk as a field experiment the papers seeks to assess the validity of current political risk or governance indicators. Vernon’s claim with the obsolescing bargaining model (OBM) that political risk plays out at the project rather than country level is investigated.Relationships are analysed among longitudinal, quarterly historical data series on: political events, expert-based political risk assessments and activity data. The aim is to show that by observing entrepreneurial investment activity at the project level we can get closer to predict political uncertainty and as it plays outvia negative political events with massive material damage. Preliminary findings based on Granger causality testing combined with ordinary benchmark coefficient estimates using panel data techniques render relatively strong support for this claim. The implications could be that by observing other firms’ experiences rather than relying on expert-based risk indicators, investors could get deeper insights into political risk, as it occurs and therefore also to some extent be able to better predict and avoid it.

    AB - Using international business research about political risk as a field experiment the papers seeks to assess the validity of current political risk or governance indicators. Vernon’s claim with the obsolescing bargaining model (OBM) that political risk plays out at the project rather than country level is investigated.Relationships are analysed among longitudinal, quarterly historical data series on: political events, expert-based political risk assessments and activity data. The aim is to show that by observing entrepreneurial investment activity at the project level we can get closer to predict political uncertainty and as it plays outvia negative political events with massive material damage. Preliminary findings based on Granger causality testing combined with ordinary benchmark coefficient estimates using panel data techniques render relatively strong support for this claim. The implications could be that by observing other firms’ experiences rather than relying on expert-based risk indicators, investors could get deeper insights into political risk, as it occurs and therefore also to some extent be able to better predict and avoid it.

    KW - Political risk

    KW - Risk assessment

    KW - Event data

    KW - Triangulation

    KW - Granger causality test

    KW - Panel data

    M3 - Conference abstract for conference

    ER -

    Jensen C. How valid are common indicators of political risk used in IB research and practice?. 2019. Abstract fra AIB 2019 Annual Meeting, Copenhagen, Danmark.