Resumé
Relationships are analysed among longitudinal, quarterly historical data series on: political events, expert-based political risk assessments and activity data. The aim is to show that by observing entrepreneurial investment activity at the project level we can get closer to predict political uncertainty and as it plays out
via negative political events with massive material damage. Preliminary findings based on Granger causality testing combined with ordinary benchmark coefficient estimates using panel data techniques render relatively strong support for this claim. The implications could be that by observing other firms’ experiences rather than relying on expert-based risk indicators, investors could get deeper insights into political risk, as it occurs and therefore also to some extent be able to better predict and avoid it.
| Originalsprog | Engelsk |
|---|---|
| Publikationsdato | 15 feb. 2019 |
| Status | Accepteret/In press - 15 feb. 2019 |
| Begivenhed | AIB 2019 Annual Meeting - Copenhagen Business School, Copenhagen, Danmark Varighed: 24 jun. 2019 → 27 jun. 2019 https://aib.msu.edu/events/2019/Program.asp |
Konference
| Konference | AIB 2019 Annual Meeting |
|---|---|
| Lokation | Copenhagen Business School |
| Land | Danmark |
| By | Copenhagen |
| Periode | 24/06/2019 → 27/06/2019 |
| Internetadresse |
Emneord
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How valid are common indicators of political risk used in IB research and practice? / Jensen, Camilla.
2019. Abstract fra AIB 2019 Annual Meeting, Copenhagen, Danmark.Publikation: Konferencebidrag › Konferenceabstrakt til konference › Forskning › peer review
TY - ABST
T1 - How valid are common indicators of political risk used in IB research and practice?
AU - Jensen, Camilla
PY - 2019/2/15
Y1 - 2019/2/15
N2 - Using international business research about political risk as a field experiment the papers seeks to assess the validity of current political risk or governance indicators. Vernon’s claim with the obsolescing bargaining model (OBM) that political risk plays out at the project rather than country level is investigated.Relationships are analysed among longitudinal, quarterly historical data series on: political events, expert-based political risk assessments and activity data. The aim is to show that by observing entrepreneurial investment activity at the project level we can get closer to predict political uncertainty and as it plays outvia negative political events with massive material damage. Preliminary findings based on Granger causality testing combined with ordinary benchmark coefficient estimates using panel data techniques render relatively strong support for this claim. The implications could be that by observing other firms’ experiences rather than relying on expert-based risk indicators, investors could get deeper insights into political risk, as it occurs and therefore also to some extent be able to better predict and avoid it.
AB - Using international business research about political risk as a field experiment the papers seeks to assess the validity of current political risk or governance indicators. Vernon’s claim with the obsolescing bargaining model (OBM) that political risk plays out at the project rather than country level is investigated.Relationships are analysed among longitudinal, quarterly historical data series on: political events, expert-based political risk assessments and activity data. The aim is to show that by observing entrepreneurial investment activity at the project level we can get closer to predict political uncertainty and as it plays outvia negative political events with massive material damage. Preliminary findings based on Granger causality testing combined with ordinary benchmark coefficient estimates using panel data techniques render relatively strong support for this claim. The implications could be that by observing other firms’ experiences rather than relying on expert-based risk indicators, investors could get deeper insights into political risk, as it occurs and therefore also to some extent be able to better predict and avoid it.
KW - Political risk
KW - Risk assessment
KW - Event data
KW - Triangulation
KW - Granger causality test
KW - Panel data
M3 - Conference abstract for conference
ER -