Feedback loops in rural depopulation

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Abstract

The phenomenon of population decline, often referred to as depopulation, is a persistent issue that has been observed for many decades. From an offset in complexity theory, this paper delves into the intricate dynamics of depopulation in a rural region in Denmark, using a novel methodology based on proven concepts that identifies key demographic characteristics and trends at a granular level. The methodology leverages granular, address level demographic data, hot spot analysis, and regionalization to identify areas with significant depopulation. The ‘three burdens of depopulation’ are explored: fertility and reproduction potential, skewed age-distribution and dependency ratio, and migration patterns. It is observed that the absence of ‘nuclear families’ and a decrease in the proportion of females aged 15-49 and children aged 0-17, are strongly correlated with depopulation. It is further demonstrated that the depopulation trends are comparable across the rural subregions of the municipality, suggesting that these trends are not isolated incidents but part of a larger, overarching pattern. The paper emphasizes the need for a focus on core urban localities and the potential necessity of urban consolidation in sparsely populated areas to ensure a viable welfare model.
OriginalsprogEngelsk
TidsskriftApplied Geography
ISSN0143-6228
StatusAfsendt - 2024

Emneord

  • Depopulation
  • Hypothesis testing
  • Complex social systems
  • Geographic information systems

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