Estimating the early death toll of COVID-19 in the United States

Daniel Weinberger*, Ted Cohen, Forrest Crawford, Farzad Mostashari, Don Olson, Virginia E Pitzer, Nicholas G Reich, Marcus Russi, Lone Simonsen, Annie Watkins, Cecile Viboud

*Corresponding author

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskning


Background Efforts to track the severity and public health impact of the novel coronavirus, COVID-19, in the US have been hampered by testing issues, reporting lags, and inconsistency between states. Evaluating unexplained increases in deaths attributed to broad outcomes, such as pneumonia and influenza (P&I) or all causes, can provide a more complete and consistent picture of the burden caused by COVID-19. Methods We evaluated increases in the occurrence of deaths due to P&I above a seasonal baseline (adjusted for influenza activity) or due to any cause across the United States in February and March 2020. These estimates are compared with reported deaths due to COVID-19 and with testing data. Results There were notable increases in the rate of death due to P&I in February and March 2020. In a number of states, these deaths pre-dated increases in COVID-19 testing rates and were not counted in official records as related to COVID-19. There was substantial variability between states in the discrepancy between reported rates of death due to COVID-19 and the estimated burden of excess deaths due to P&I. The increase in all-cause deaths in New York and New Jersey is 1.5-3 times higher than the official tally of COVID-19 confirmed deaths or the estimated excess death due to P&I. Conclusions Excess P&I deaths provide a conservative estimate of COVID-19 burden and indicate that COVID-19-related deaths are missed in locations with inadequate testing or intense pandemic activity.
StatusAfsendt - 2020

Bibliografisk note

This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.

Citer dette

Weinberger, D., Cohen, T., Crawford, F., Mostashari, F., Olson, D., Pitzer, V. E., Reich, N. G., Russi, M., Simonsen, L., Watkins, A., & Viboud, C. (2020). Estimating the early death toll of COVID-19 in the United States. Manuskript afsendt til publicering.