Effect of a high-end CO2-emission scenario on hydrology

Ida Bjørnholt Karlsson, Torben Sonnenborg, Lauren Paige Seaby, Karsten Høgh Jensen, Jens Christian Refsgaard

    Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

    Resumé

    In the latest IPCC report, worst case scenarios of climate change describe average global surface warming of up to 6°C from pre-industrial times by the year 2100. This study highlights the influence of a high-end 6 degree climate change on the hydrology of a catchment in central Denmark. A simulation from the global climate model, EC-Earth, is downscaled using the regional climate model HIRHAM5. A simple bias correction is applied for daily reference evapotranspiration and temperature, while distribution-based scaling is used for daily precipitation data. Both the 6 degree emission scenario and the less extreme RCP4.5 emission scenario are evaluated for the future period 2071−2099. The downscaled climate variables are applied to a fully distributed, physically based, coupled surface−subsurface hydrological model based on the MIKE SHE model code. The impacts on soil moisture dynamics and evapotranspiration show increasing drying-out tendencies for the future, most pronounced in the 6 degree scenario. Stream discharge and groundwater levels also show increased drying due to higher evapotranspiration. By comparing the 6 degree scenario with other emission scenarios, it is found that the most prominent changes in the water balance are caused by drying out of soils rather than precipitation effects
    OriginalsprogEngelsk
    TidsskriftClimate Research
    Vol/bind64
    Udgave nummer1
    Sider (fra-til)39-54
    Antal sider16
    ISSN0936-577X
    DOI
    StatusUdgivet - 17 jun. 2015

    Emneord

    • Climate change
    • High-end scenarios
    • Hydrological modelling
    • Impact study

    Citer dette

    Karlsson, I. B., Sonnenborg, T., Seaby, L. P., Jensen, K. H., & Refsgaard, J. C. (2015). Effect of a high-end CO2-emission scenario on hydrology. Climate Research, 64(1), 39-54. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01265
    Karlsson, Ida Bjørnholt ; Sonnenborg, Torben ; Seaby, Lauren Paige ; Jensen, Karsten Høgh ; Refsgaard, Jens Christian. / Effect of a high-end CO2-emission scenario on hydrology. I: Climate Research. 2015 ; Bind 64, Nr. 1. s. 39-54.
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    title = "Effect of a high-end CO2-emission scenario on hydrology",
    abstract = "In the latest IPCC report, worst case scenarios of climate change describe average global surface warming of up to 6°C from pre-industrial times by the year 2100. This study highlights the influence of a high-end 6 degree climate change on the hydrology of a catchment in central Denmark. A simulation from the global climate model, EC-Earth, is downscaled using the regional climate model HIRHAM5. A simple bias correction is applied for daily reference evapotranspiration and temperature, while distribution-based scaling is used for daily precipitation data. Both the 6 degree emission scenario and the less extreme RCP4.5 emission scenario are evaluated for the future period 2071−2099. The downscaled climate variables are applied to a fully distributed, physically based, coupled surface−subsurface hydrological model based on the MIKE SHE model code. The impacts on soil moisture dynamics and evapotranspiration show increasing drying-out tendencies for the future, most pronounced in the 6 degree scenario. Stream discharge and groundwater levels also show increased drying due to higher evapotranspiration. By comparing the 6 degree scenario with other emission scenarios, it is found that the most prominent changes in the water balance are caused by drying out of soils rather than precipitation effects",
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    author = "Karlsson, {Ida Bj{\o}rnholt} and Torben Sonnenborg and Seaby, {Lauren Paige} and Jensen, {Karsten H{\o}gh} and Refsgaard, {Jens Christian}",
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    Karlsson, IB, Sonnenborg, T, Seaby, LP, Jensen, KH & Refsgaard, JC 2015, 'Effect of a high-end CO2-emission scenario on hydrology', Climate Research, bind 64, nr. 1, s. 39-54. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01265

    Effect of a high-end CO2-emission scenario on hydrology. / Karlsson, Ida Bjørnholt; Sonnenborg, Torben; Seaby, Lauren Paige; Jensen, Karsten Høgh; Refsgaard, Jens Christian.

    I: Climate Research, Bind 64, Nr. 1, 17.06.2015, s. 39-54.

    Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

    TY - JOUR

    T1 - Effect of a high-end CO2-emission scenario on hydrology

    AU - Karlsson, Ida Bjørnholt

    AU - Sonnenborg, Torben

    AU - Seaby, Lauren Paige

    AU - Jensen, Karsten Høgh

    AU - Refsgaard, Jens Christian

    PY - 2015/6/17

    Y1 - 2015/6/17

    N2 - In the latest IPCC report, worst case scenarios of climate change describe average global surface warming of up to 6°C from pre-industrial times by the year 2100. This study highlights the influence of a high-end 6 degree climate change on the hydrology of a catchment in central Denmark. A simulation from the global climate model, EC-Earth, is downscaled using the regional climate model HIRHAM5. A simple bias correction is applied for daily reference evapotranspiration and temperature, while distribution-based scaling is used for daily precipitation data. Both the 6 degree emission scenario and the less extreme RCP4.5 emission scenario are evaluated for the future period 2071−2099. The downscaled climate variables are applied to a fully distributed, physically based, coupled surface−subsurface hydrological model based on the MIKE SHE model code. The impacts on soil moisture dynamics and evapotranspiration show increasing drying-out tendencies for the future, most pronounced in the 6 degree scenario. Stream discharge and groundwater levels also show increased drying due to higher evapotranspiration. By comparing the 6 degree scenario with other emission scenarios, it is found that the most prominent changes in the water balance are caused by drying out of soils rather than precipitation effects

    AB - In the latest IPCC report, worst case scenarios of climate change describe average global surface warming of up to 6°C from pre-industrial times by the year 2100. This study highlights the influence of a high-end 6 degree climate change on the hydrology of a catchment in central Denmark. A simulation from the global climate model, EC-Earth, is downscaled using the regional climate model HIRHAM5. A simple bias correction is applied for daily reference evapotranspiration and temperature, while distribution-based scaling is used for daily precipitation data. Both the 6 degree emission scenario and the less extreme RCP4.5 emission scenario are evaluated for the future period 2071−2099. The downscaled climate variables are applied to a fully distributed, physically based, coupled surface−subsurface hydrological model based on the MIKE SHE model code. The impacts on soil moisture dynamics and evapotranspiration show increasing drying-out tendencies for the future, most pronounced in the 6 degree scenario. Stream discharge and groundwater levels also show increased drying due to higher evapotranspiration. By comparing the 6 degree scenario with other emission scenarios, it is found that the most prominent changes in the water balance are caused by drying out of soils rather than precipitation effects

    KW - Climate change

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    KW - Hydrological modelling

    KW - Impact study

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    KW - High-end scenarios

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    KW - Impact study

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    SN - 0936-577X

    IS - 1

    ER -

    Karlsson IB, Sonnenborg T, Seaby LP, Jensen KH, Refsgaard JC. Effect of a high-end CO2-emission scenario on hydrology. Climate Research. 2015 jun 17;64(1):39-54. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01265