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Abstract
Background
It sparked considerable attention from international media when Denmark lifted restrictions against COVID-19 in February 2022 amidst widespread transmission of the new SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant and a steep rise in reported COVID-19 mortality based on the 30-day COVID-19 death count.
Aim
Our aim was to investigate how coincidental infections affected COVID-19 mortality estimates following the introduction of the Omicron variant in late 2021.
Methods
We compared the 30-day COVID-19 death count with the observed mortality using three alternative mortality estimation methods; (i) a mathematical model to correct the 30-day COVID-19 death count for coincidental deaths, (ii) the Causes of Death Registry (CDR) and (iii) all-cause excess mortality.
Results
There was a substantial peak in the 30-day COVID-19 death count following the emergence of the Omicron variant in late 2021. However, there was also a substantial change in the proportion of coincidental deaths, increasing from 10–20% to around 40% of the recorded COVID-19 deaths. The high number of 30-day COVID-19 deaths was not reflected in the number of COVID-19 deaths in the CDR and the all-cause excess mortality surveillance.
Conclusion
Our analysis showed a distinct change in the mortality pattern following the introduction of Omicron in late 2021 with a markedly higher proportion of people estimated to have died with, rather than of, COVID-19 compared with mortality patterns observed earlier in the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings highlight the importance of incorporating alternative mortality surveillance methods to more correctly estimate the burden of COVID-19 as the pandemic continues to evolve.
It sparked considerable attention from international media when Denmark lifted restrictions against COVID-19 in February 2022 amidst widespread transmission of the new SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant and a steep rise in reported COVID-19 mortality based on the 30-day COVID-19 death count.
Aim
Our aim was to investigate how coincidental infections affected COVID-19 mortality estimates following the introduction of the Omicron variant in late 2021.
Methods
We compared the 30-day COVID-19 death count with the observed mortality using three alternative mortality estimation methods; (i) a mathematical model to correct the 30-day COVID-19 death count for coincidental deaths, (ii) the Causes of Death Registry (CDR) and (iii) all-cause excess mortality.
Results
There was a substantial peak in the 30-day COVID-19 death count following the emergence of the Omicron variant in late 2021. However, there was also a substantial change in the proportion of coincidental deaths, increasing from 10–20% to around 40% of the recorded COVID-19 deaths. The high number of 30-day COVID-19 deaths was not reflected in the number of COVID-19 deaths in the CDR and the all-cause excess mortality surveillance.
Conclusion
Our analysis showed a distinct change in the mortality pattern following the introduction of Omicron in late 2021 with a markedly higher proportion of people estimated to have died with, rather than of, COVID-19 compared with mortality patterns observed earlier in the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings highlight the importance of incorporating alternative mortality surveillance methods to more correctly estimate the burden of COVID-19 as the pandemic continues to evolve.
| Originalsprog | Engelsk |
|---|---|
| Artikelnummer | 2200547 |
| Tidsskrift | Eurosurveillance |
| Vol/bind | 28 |
| Udgave nummer | 3 |
| ISSN | 1025-496X |
| DOI | |
| Status | Udgivet - 19 jan. 2023 |
Projekter
- 1 Afsluttet
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Carlsberg PandemiX: A Quantitative study of historical and contemporary pandemics
Simonsen, L. (Projektleder), Andreasen, V. (Projektdeltager), Berrig, C. (Projektdeltager), Wijhe, M. V. (Projektdeltager), Qvesel, A. G. (Projektdeltager), Thorn, A. V. (Projektdeltager), Ørskov, S. (Projektdeltager), Ingholt, M. M. (Projektdeltager), Krogfelt, K. A. (Projektdeltager), Nielsen, B. F. (Projektdeltager), Poder, S. K. (Projektdeltager), Mannov Christiansen, C. (Projektdeltager), Pedersen, A. G. (Projektdeltager), Sneppen, K. (Projektdeltager), Fischer, T. K. (Projektdeltager), Pedersen, R. K. (Projektdeltager) & Eilersen, A. T. (Projektdeltager)
01/04/2020 → 30/09/2024
Projekter: Projekt › Forskning