Biomarkers of Physical and Mental Health for Prediction of Parkinson's Disease: A Population-Based Study from 15 European Countries

Objectives
Early diagnosis of Parkinson's disease (PD) is critical for optimal treatment. However, the predictive potential of physical and mental health in PD is poorly characterized.

Methods
We evaluated the potential of multiple demographic, physical, and mental factors in predicting the future onset of PD in older adults aged 50 years or older from 15 European countries. Individual study participants were followed over four waves of the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) from 2013–2020.

Results
Of 57,980 study participants, 442 developed PD during the study period. We identified male sex and advancing age from the sixth decade of life onward as significant predictors of future PD. Among physical factors, a low handgrip strength (HGS; men <27 kg, women <16 kg), being bothered by frailty, and recent falls were significantly associated with future PD. Among mental factors, a higher depression (Euro-D depression score >6) emerged as an independent predictor of future PD. Finally, the presence of hypertension or Alzheimer's disease (AD) increases the risk of future PD.

Conclusions
Altogether, male sex, advancing age, low HGS, frailty, depression, hypertension, and AD were identified as critical risk factors for future PD. Our results may be useful in the early identification and treatment of populations at risk for PD.