A comparative study of the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic in Japan, USA and UK:

mortality impact and implications for pandemic planning

S.A. Richard, N. Sugaya, Lone Simonsen, Mark Miller, Cecile Viboud

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

Resumé

Historical studies of influenza pandemics can provide insight into transmission and mortality patterns, and may aid in planning for a future pandemic. Here, we analyse historical vital statistics and quantify the age-specific mortality patterns associated with the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic in Japan, USA, and UK. All three countries showed highly elevated mortality risk in young adults relative to surrounding non-pandemic years. By contrast, the risk of death was low in the very young and very old. In Japan, the overall mortality impact was not limited to winter 1918-1919, and continued during winter 1919-1920. Mortality impact varied as much as threefold across the 47 Japanese prefectures, and differences in baseline mortality, population demographics, and density explained a small fraction of these variations. Our study highlights important geographical variations in timing and mortality impact of historical pandemics, in particular between the Eastern and Western hemispheres. In a future pandemic, vaccination in one region could save lives even months after the emergence of a pandemic virus in another region.
OriginalsprogEngelsk
TidsskriftEpidemiology and Infection
Vol/bind137
Udgave nummer8
Sider (fra-til)1062-1072
ISSN0950-2688
StatusUdgivet - 2009

Citer dette

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A comparative study of the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic in Japan, USA and UK: mortality impact and implications for pandemic planning. / Richard, S.A.; Sugaya, N.; Simonsen, Lone; Miller, Mark; Viboud, Cecile.

I: Epidemiology and Infection, Bind 137, Nr. 8, 2009, s. 1062-1072.

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

TY - JOUR

T1 - A comparative study of the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic in Japan, USA and UK:

T2 - mortality impact and implications for pandemic planning

AU - Richard, S.A.

AU - Sugaya, N.

AU - Simonsen, Lone

AU - Miller, Mark

AU - Viboud, Cecile

PY - 2009

Y1 - 2009

N2 - Historical studies of influenza pandemics can provide insight into transmission and mortality patterns, and may aid in planning for a future pandemic. Here, we analyse historical vital statistics and quantify the age-specific mortality patterns associated with the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic in Japan, USA, and UK. All three countries showed highly elevated mortality risk in young adults relative to surrounding non-pandemic years. By contrast, the risk of death was low in the very young and very old. In Japan, the overall mortality impact was not limited to winter 1918-1919, and continued during winter 1919-1920. Mortality impact varied as much as threefold across the 47 Japanese prefectures, and differences in baseline mortality, population demographics, and density explained a small fraction of these variations. Our study highlights important geographical variations in timing and mortality impact of historical pandemics, in particular between the Eastern and Western hemispheres. In a future pandemic, vaccination in one region could save lives even months after the emergence of a pandemic virus in another region.

AB - Historical studies of influenza pandemics can provide insight into transmission and mortality patterns, and may aid in planning for a future pandemic. Here, we analyse historical vital statistics and quantify the age-specific mortality patterns associated with the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic in Japan, USA, and UK. All three countries showed highly elevated mortality risk in young adults relative to surrounding non-pandemic years. By contrast, the risk of death was low in the very young and very old. In Japan, the overall mortality impact was not limited to winter 1918-1919, and continued during winter 1919-1920. Mortality impact varied as much as threefold across the 47 Japanese prefectures, and differences in baseline mortality, population demographics, and density explained a small fraction of these variations. Our study highlights important geographical variations in timing and mortality impact of historical pandemics, in particular between the Eastern and Western hemispheres. In a future pandemic, vaccination in one region could save lives even months after the emergence of a pandemic virus in another region.

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VL - 137

SP - 1062

EP - 1072

JO - Epidemiology and Infection

JF - Epidemiology and Infection

SN - 0950-2688

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ER -